In a toxic bubble

We do seem to be in a bind, struggling to breathe – literally as well as metaphorically. While the crisis of smog in large areas of Punjab, with Lahore as its epicentre, has continued to ‘thicken’, Imran Khan’s ‘final call’ for a protest on November 24 – next Sunday – has set into motion a new wave of turmoil in the political arena.

Because of what it means to the health of the people, particularly children, and because of how it has gravely disrupted the lives of millions of citizens, it is the smog that deserves the nation’s undivided attention. But the PTI protest has suddenly become a major issue. And it poses a serious threat to social harmony and public order.

Well, we know that smog appears every year in Punjab during the winter months. It happens due to smoke, dust, low wind speed, vehicular emissions and burning of crop stubble. But what is happening now is exceptional. Senior Punjab Minister Marriyum Aurangzeb said on Friday that it has turned into a “health crisis”. Experts have raised alarms that bear intimations of an apocalyptic disaster.

One measure of it is the report in the international media that the toxic smog in Pakistan is so bad that it can be seen from space. To quote CNN, record-breaking levels of thick smog that have shrouded eastern Pakistan and northern India can be seen, since last month, in striking satellite imagery. Satellite imagery from NASA Worldview shows that a huge cloud of grey smoke blankets Pakistan’s Punjab province and stretches out east into India, over the capital New Delhi and beyond.

According to one report, around two million people have visited hospitals across Punjab with breathing problems and other respiratory diseases in a month. Figures that show the Air Quality Index (AQI) of Lahore and Multan are setting new records for air pollution. The AQI in some areas of Lahore soared to unprecedented levels.

The UN children’s agency, Unicef, has warned that more than 11 million children under the age of five are exposed to smog in the most affected districts. Save the Children’s country director in Pakistan has said that as well as disrupting their education, “air pollution and hotter temperatures are leading to life-threatening dangers for children, including difficulty in breathing and higher risk of infectious diseases”.

It so happens that the World Leaders Climate Action Summit at COP29 was held this week in Baku. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also addressed the climate conference and expressed his dismay at the unmet climate pledges that had been made in previous summits.

However, I would like to highlight the message that was delivered by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. It is so straightforward and so poignant. He said: “The sound you hear is [a] ticking clock. We are in the final countdown to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. And time is not on our side.”

This formulation – that time is not on our side – sums up the challenges that the leaders of the world confront in not just the context of climate change. There are so many other spheres of human activity that demand immediate attention. For instance, the rise of authoritarian leaders in democratic countries is creating the potential for global chaos. Apparently, irreconcilable divisions have emerged in a number of societies.

These thoughts would allow me to shift to the toxic environment of politics in Pakistan. It is like the smog situation because you do not see any prospect of settling it in the near future. It is becoming hard to even conceive the right strategy to purify the air by removing the pollutants.

Talking to media persons after a court hearing in Adiala prison on Wednesday, Imran Khan issued a ‘final call’ for the protest that is intended to overthrow the present arrangement. The tenor of the PTI leaders’ statements is exceedingly aggressive. They see it as a do-or-die operation.

Sheikh Waqas, the new spokesperson of the party, has declared that workers from across the country will converge in Islamabad on November 24 – and they will not return home until their demands are accepted. But it would not be possible for their demands to be accepted unless the idea is to stage a bloody social revolution.

What are their demands? Imran Khan’s sister Aleema Khan has elucidated three. One demand is the reversal of the 26th Amendment. The second is the return of their ‘stolen mandate’. The third is the release of all incarcerated leaders of the PTI, including Imran Khan. Observers, however, claim that the sole object of the protest is to get Imran Khan out of prison.

It should be conceded that the PTI has a large following and Imran Khan’s leadership has some features of a cult. But the expectation that one massive onslaught on Islamabad by unarmed protesters can change the regime is unrealistic, to choose an inoffensive word. Besides, we have seen how previous PTI protests were dealt with.

So, what is the game that Imran Khan is playing? After repeated failures in staging a big show that would put the establishment under pressure, there is bound to be some confusion in the minds of the PTI leaders and workers about the rationality of the plan. Reports indicate a difference of opinion in some PTI circles.

Finally, what does the ‘final call’ really mean? It is in the realm of sports that a final is played and the tournament ends. This is not how it works in politics. It is possible to argue that Imran Khan has always sought to apply the rules of sports in politics. That may be one reason why he does not want to negotiate or interact meaningfully with his political adversaries.

Be that as it may, the focus in the coming week will remain on how the PTI mobilises its rank and file and how the administration will respond to moves that are made by the PTI. Thankfully, there had been no fatalities or casualties in previous PTI protests. What will it be like this time?

The writer is a senior journalist. He can be reached at: ghazi_salahuddin@hotmail.com