Rupee seen trading range-bound next week

KARACHI: The rupee is expected to trade range-bound in the coming week due to improved dollar supplies and positive sentiment after the International Monetary Fund concluded talks on a $7 billion loan programme, dealers said.

On Monday, the rupee finished at 277.86 to the dollar in the interbank market. On Friday, though, the local unit recovered its losses and closed at 277.66.

“We anticipate that the rupee will remain stable in the sessions ahead due to increase in remittances, foreign exchange reserves and prevalent positive sentiment in the market related to the IMF’s visit to Pakistan,” a currency dealer said.

The IMF’s team visited Pakistan from November 12 to November 15 to talk with Pakistan’s authorities to review progress on economic policy and reform efforts regarding the ongoing Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme.

“We are encouraged by the authorities’ reaffirmed commitment to the economic reforms supported by the 2024 EFF,” Nathan Porter, the chief of the IMF’s Pakistan mission, who led the talks, said in a statement.

Constructive discussions on economic policy and reform efforts to reduce vulnerabilities would help lay the basis for stronger and sustainable growth, he added.

Tresmark in a weekly note said that the dollar index has surged for seven consecutive weeks gaining 5.8 per cent, bulldozing the euro, GBP and yen. Even the Indian rupee posted its all-time low of 84.43 per the US dollar.

“However, the Pakistani rupee has been mostly range-bound demonstrating little to no free-market movements. Swaps, though firmer, are still not so attractive to exporters, trading at 120 and 245 paisa for 1 and 3-month tenors respectively,” it said.

Pakistan’s central bank foreign exchange reserves increased by $84 million to $11.26 billion as of November 8. The country’s total reserves increased by $34 million to $15.966 billion. However, the reserves of commercial banks dropped by $50 million to $4.707 million.