National gas distribution network again at high risk

ISLAMABAD: The country’s national gas distribution network on Wednesday witnessed tremendous line pack pressure of over 5 billion cubic feet (bcf) putting the whole system in jeopardy which may lead to an unprecedented gas availability crisis if the main pipeline bursts because of the pressure.

In the current month of November, 2024, the line pack pressure has surged to 5.097 bcf – a highly dangerous mark as the power sector has reduced intake of RLNG for power generation to 286 mmcf (million cubic feet) knowing the fact that the government signed the two long term agreement with Qatar for RLNG supply on take or pay basis just to provide the imported gas to 4 RLNG based power plants of 4800MW with over 60 percent efficiency, but the power decision has reduced the power generation by RLNG based power plants because the electricity demand has reduced manifold with the advent of the winter season.

However, Sui Northern, according to the data available with The News has reduced the intake of local gas from Wednesday— November 13, 2024 with immediate effect from exploration production (E&P) companies by 200 mmcf but the line pack pressure is still above 5bcf – the dangerous level. The data reveals that SNGPL has reduced the local gas intake of 35mmcf from Sui field of Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL), 10mmcf from Qadirpur gas field of OGDCL, 30mmcf from HRL field of Mari Petroleum Company Limited, 15mmcf from Togh field of OGDCL, 50mmcf from Mol field of MOL, 45mmcf from Nashpa gas field of OGDCL, 4mmcf from Tolang field of MOL and 11mmcf from Dok Hussian gas field of OGDCL.

The officials said that the exploration and production companies have time and again cautioned the authorities that the practice of decreasing local gas flows to safeguard the gas transmission system was perilous. The E&P companies, according to the officials, argued that sometimes, wells nearing depletion if compelled to reduce natural gas flows, it would cause irreparable damage, and the wells cannot be recharged to their original flow levels. “They require capital-intensive investment through artificial lift methods to resume production.” In the past, the officials said, many wells braved huge damages because of reduction in their gas outflows and they could not be recharged and this is how many E&P companies braved mammoth losses.

“The main pipeline of the gas in the country is now working as storage of the gas instead of being used for transportation and distribution services just because of the fact that the gas consumption has reduced manifold in the country particularly by power sector.”

The government has already managed to shift 5 LNG cargoes to 2026, earlier destined to reach Pakistan in 2025. Pakistan imports 10 LNG cargoes (9 from Qatar and one from ENI) every month but the consumption by the power sector has never been as per demand the power division submits for every month. In the pipeline, apart from the imported gas, the country’s local gas is also included. “In the wake of high gas tariffs, imported and local gas consumption has reasonably reduced.” The Power Division says if it utilizes the RLNG power plants at the maximum, the basket price of the electricity would increase as the RLNG as fuel cost for power generation is higher which is at Rs26 per unit. So the power sector prefers to first run the cheaper power plants which consume local gas, and coal as fuel.

The system also prefers to run nuclear and hydropower plants as their tariffs are at lower side. “Now in the month of November, 2024, the electricity demand has decreased as the use of the ACs is on the decline particularly in the upper Punjab and KPK and northern parts of the country.” According to the latest line pack pressure data, the line pack on Wednesday was at 5.097 bcf which was at 4.855 bcf on Tuesday. The power sector is consuming 286mmcf of gas for power generation, while fertilizer sector 93mmcf. The indigenous gas input in this system stayed at just 749mmcf whereas the RLNG input was at 785mmcf out of which 46mmcf has been retained by Sui Southern. However, the export and non-export industry is using 310mmcf in the system of Sui southern.