COP29: resilience or fragility?

As world leaders gather in Baku today for the UNFCCC COP29, the urgency for decisive climate action has never been greater.

This gathering offers a vital opportunity to shift from vulnerability to resilience, setting the foundation for a sustainable and equitable future. Historically, there have been certain defining moments that have shaped societies, steering them toward progress or decline. Today, humanity faces one such moment. COP29 is more than a climate conference; it is a forum for critical choices that could lead to a resilient world or, if mishandled, deepen existing fragilities.

Adding complexity to the decisions confronting leaders at COP29 is the recent election of Donald Trump as president of the United States. Known for his scepticism toward climate science, Trump’s return introduces uncertainty into global climate commitments. During his previous term, he withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement, citing concerns over American sovereignty and economic interests. Although the Biden administration rejoined and reinforced climate goals, Trump’s impending term may upend these efforts, potentially impacting the outcomes of COP29.

If the US, under Trump’s leadership, weakens or exits international climate agreements, the global repercussions could be considerable. In this scenario, other major players like the European Union, China, and key economies in Asia and Africa must step forward to assert their climate leadership by reinforcing and even expanding their climate commitments. By closing potential gaps, these nations can ensure that global climate action remains robust, regardless of US participation.

For countries like Pakistan, COP29 is more than just a stage for advocacy. It is an opportunity to emphasise specific needs, from increased climate finance to technical support for renewable energy. With uncertainty around the US role, Pakistan and other climate-vulnerable nations must champion predictable, reliable financing mechanisms that can withstand political shifts and ensure consistent support for sustainable development.

These financing mechanisms are essential as climate change escalates. In Pakistan alone, recent years have brought devastating floods, intense heatwaves, and glacial lake outbursts, threatening millions of lives and jeopardising food security. Lahore, once known as the ‘City of Gardens’, now ranks among the world’s most polluted cities, highlighting the urgent need for resilient urban systems that can withstand environmental stresses.

But Pakistan’s narrative at COP29 is not solely one of vulnerability. The country has shown resilience through community-led initiatives and local solutions. Following the catastrophic floods of 2022, millions of Pakistanis rebuilt their lives independently, showcasing a spirit of self-reliance.

Likewise, solar energy has become a transformative force in agriculture and small business, demonstrating the potential of grassroots efforts to drive national progress. In the same spirit, many export industries have started their preparations for a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism of the EU (and, potentially, the US and China) regime.

Yet scaling these initiatives requires dedicated international support, and COP29 provides a platform to secure and agree on transparent frameworks for such commitments.

As Pakistan champions its priorities at COP29, it has a unique chance to showcase that resilience is multi-dimensional, spanning environmental, economic and social domains. It has demonstrated economic resilience, avoiding collapse despite heavy debt burdens, disrupted supply chains, and other vulnerabilities.

This stability, while fragile, reflects a societal strength that can inspire international collaboration. At COP29, Pakistan should advocate for frameworks that allow all nations to transition sustainably, irrespective of their economic standing.

Finally, all delegates of COP should raise a voice to empower communities and individuals to adapt, innovate, and prepare for the future. Social resilience – rooted in civic engagement and community empowerment – must be central to the global conversation on climate resilience.

The choices made at COP29 will shape global resilience for years to come. Will the international community continue to respond to crises as they arise, or will it create systems that prevent local disturbances from escalating into global disasters? The decisions taken today will determine whether resilience becomes the cornerstone of our future or if we remain vulnerable to political and environmental instability.

The crossroads we face is not merely about survival; it is a chance to redefine our approach to sustainability and resilience. By embracing a long-term vision at COP29, advocating for inclusive solutions, and reinforcing sustainable practices, Pakistan and the global community can forge a path toward stability and shared prosperity. This moment calls for vision, courage, and collaboration – qualities that can transform current vulnerabilities into strengths and secure a sustainable future for generations to come.

If this opportunity is seized, COP29 could be remembered as the turning point where global fragility gave way to resilience, and international cooperation set us on a path to a stronger, more sustainable future.

The writer heads the Sustainable Development Policy Institute.

He tweets/posts @abidsuleri