Trump or Harris? Pakistan’s diplomatic puzzle

MUCH as we might like to think we are the centre of US attention in the Middle Hemisphere, the reality is that no matter who wins the American election, Washington will continue to view its relationship with Pakistan through the lens of its ties with China, and to a lesserextent India and Iran. The only difference will be in the tone and gestures; a Trump presidency would amplify rhetoric and adopt a more pronounced stance.

Recent years have seen Washington’s priorities shift -- increasingly focused on countering China’s ascendancy while nurturing ties with India. This evolution has highlighted the transactional nature of Pakistan-US relations, historically marked by alternating phases of fragile alliances and pointed tensions.

Quite obviously, a Trump presidency would mark the return of his signature ‘America First’ doctrine, an approach that often prioritises American interests at the expense of multilateral diplomacy. Pakistan could face stricter terms on defence cooperation and reduced aid, similar to what Trump did in his first term by cutting $1.3 billion in military assistance.

It was also during Trump’s previous tenure in the White House that we saw a deepening of American ties with India, positioning New Delhi as a key ally against China. However, Trump’s transactional outlook may allow Islamabad to negotiate a better deal based on immediate US interests on issues like counterterrorism.

A Harris administration, on the other hand, will offer a more measured yet complex engagement. Building on Biden’s diplomatic legacy, Kamala Harris is likely to prioritise democratic values, human rights and social programmes in her foreign aid policy toward Pakistan. This could lead to steadier relations, anchored in multilateralism, but with increased scrutiny of Pakistan’s internal politics and civil liberties, a stark departure from Trump’s indifference toward the domestic politics of other nations.

Pakistan’s strategic conundrum involves promoting economic ties with China, while further developing defence ties with the US. Under Trump, Pakistan might face increased scrutiny over its collaboration with Beijing as the US-China rivalry intensifies, while Harris might try to keep a balance by focusing on broader coalition-building without alienating strategic partners. This might offer Pakistan a chance to navigate a more balanced relationship.

So whether it’s former president Donald Trump who returns to the White House or Vice President Kamala Harris who shifts into the Oval Office, Pakistan will need to practice deft diplomacy to maintain its delicate equilibrium.

Despite Pakistan’s reliance on Chinese infrastructure investment and financial support, the US remains Pakistan’s largest export market, worth $8 billion annually. And let’s not forget that there are over 625,000 Pakistani-Americans who contribute around one-third of Pakistan’s annual remittances.

Media reports say that in the face of continued trauma of Israel’s war on Gaza and Lebanon, Muslim voters, both Pakistani and Arab, face an ‘impossible choice’ in the upcoming election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. This sentiment is particularly strong within the sizable Arab American population in Michigan, a crucial swing state.

Muslim voters in the US are angry at the Biden administration for supporting and funding Israeli genocide in the occupied Palestinian areas, with some considering abstaining from voting or backing Green Party candidate Jill Stein. This could divide the Democratic Party’s vote in favour of Trump. According to the latest poll by the Council on American-Islamic Relations, the largest Muslim civil rights and advocacy organisation in the US, 42.3 per cent of Muslim voters support Jill Stein, 41 per cent still support Kamala Harris and just about 10 per cent favour Donald Trump.

While the outcome of the 2024 US presidential race will not dramatically alter Pak-US relations, subtle shifts are anticipated. The stakes extend beyond defence and economics, touching on how Pakistan deals with democratic expectations, balances power with regional giants, and navigates an increasingly multipolar world. Experts see the US election as a pivotal moment for wider conversations about Pakistan’s place in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, where the art of balancing competing interests will define its future course.

The writer is an executive producer at Geo News.