Sindh overtakes Punjab in cotton production

LAHORE: Punjab’s cotton farming dominance has been challenged by Sindh’s higher output, signalling a historic shift in the national agriculture-scape, suggesting arrival trends in the ongoing 2024-25 season.

Amid improvement in the overall flow of cotton at the ginning stage, the unassailed supremacy of Punjab province in the cotton farming sector has been threatened due to ineffective policies, as Sindh’s output surpasses by a significant margin, showing a consistent trend for the first time in the nation’s history.

Pakistan Cotton Ginners’ Association’s fortnightly report issued on Sunday provides a comprehensive overview of cotton arrivals in factories across Pakistan as of October 31, 2024. It highlights the total number of bales received and sold, and the stock status compared to the previous year. The data reflects the collaborative efforts of the PCGA and Karachi Cotton Association (KCA), showcasing the current overall dismal state of the cotton industry at national, provincial and various district levels.

Pakistan has received a total of 4.291 million bales of cotton till October 31, 2024. As per cotton arrivals by province. Punjab’s flow at the ginning stage has been recorded at a mere 1.842 million bales against Sindh’s arrivals of 2.448 million bales. While comparing the data related to total arrivals, Punjab’s share squeezed to 42.94 percent against the usual stake of ~70 percent. On the other hand, Sindh’s share in cotton arrivals jumped to 57.06 percent, which used to be around 30 percent in national output. This highlights that Sindh plays a more significant role in cotton arrivals compared to Punjab.

For comparison, as the cotton season is going to enter its advanced stage, despite overall relative improvement in cotton arrival data, pushing it to 4.291 million cotton bales, overall production is likely to fall way short of 10.874 million bales target for the current season. The gap between Punjab’s current production of 1.842 million bales looks to widen against the official target of 6.500 million bales.

Coming back to the flow of cotton at the national level, arrivals in October 31, 2024, were 4.291 million bales against last year’s 6.794 million bales stood till the corresponding period. The arrivals at the national level have decreased by 2.502 million bales from last year. In percentage terms, the overall decrease stood at 36.84 percent at the national level compared to last year.

Comparatively, Punjab’s arrival of 1.842 million bales against last year’s flow of 2.996 million bales shows a fall of 38.53 percent compared to last year’s same period. On the other hand, the total cotton arrivals in Sindh as of October 31, 2024, was 2.448 million bales against last year’s flow of 3.797 million bales, indicating a drop of 1.348 million bales from last year. In percentage terms, the decrease registered a reduction of 35.51. The official production target for Sindh province has been fixed at 3.900 million bales for the 2024-25 season.

The total cotton arrivals in Balochistan as of October 31, 2024 indicate an interesting healthy trend with the arrival of 0.131 million bales over last year’s corresponding flows of 0.163 million bales. Hence, the arrivals in Balochistan have decreased by 31,500 bales from last year, showing a mere decline of 19.29 percent.

As per estimates of stakeholders about possible crop size for the current season, according to a senior office bearer of the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association, cotton production at the national level may be as low as 5.5 million bales. A central leader of Pakistan Kissan Itehad assessed cotton output at a maximum of 5.2 million bales. He added that going forward, cotton flows could show a gradual reduction in the coming weeks as most farmers would shift focus to sugarcane harvesting and sowing of Rabi crops.