Cotton arrivals slightly rebound despite Punjab’s ongoing decline

LAHORE: Cotton arrivals at the ginning stage indicate some improvement, even amidst Punjab’s ongoing decline, according to data released on Friday.

As of October 15, 2024, the cotton market reflects a mix of slight improvement and overall decline compared to the previous year, presenting both challenges and opportunities for stakeholders in the textile industry. According to the fortnightly report issued by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), total cotton arrivals have reached 3.10 million bales, down from 5.99 million bales recorded last year, marking a 48.27 per cent decrease.

While the previous fortnight’s data showed a decline of 59.41 per cent, these new figures indicate a modest improvement in flows. The data reveals a noteworthy increase in nationwide cotton flows this year, with total fortnightly arrivals of 1.061 million bales, compared to last year’s fortnightly flow of 0.97 million bales. This highlights a comparably emerging positive trend in cotton production. Although the total arrivals of 5.99 million bales last year were substantial, the current season’s decline remains disappointing. However, the late increase in volumes suggests a more optimistic outlook for future harvests, especially in partially meeting the demands of the textile sector.

On a provincial basis, Punjab has experienced a significant 53.38 per cent decline in arrivals this year, with only 1.18 million bales arriving at the ginning stage. This performance is markedly lower than its usual share of over 70 per cent of national cotton production. In contrast, Sindh has managed to register arrivals of 1.91 million bales, accounting for 62 per cent of the national production of 3.1 million bales.

The ongoing freefall in cotton arrivals is particularly evident in District Rahim Yar Khan in Punjab. Once a leading producer, this district has seen a concerning 73.46 per cent decline over last year’s figures, recording just 84,426 bales out of Punjab’s total of 1.15 million bales. The plummeting cotton production in this key district raises serious concerns.

Observers note that, despite the relative increase in total arrivals, volumes may have reached peak levels, as the cotton processing infrastructure remains active. Currently, 536 ginning factories are in operation, up from 392 the previous fortnight. This operational capacity is crucial for efficiently processing incoming cotton into textiles, supporting both local and export markets. The productivity of these factories will be essential in the coming weeks as they adapt to market demands and fluctuating cotton prices. Their operational status suggests a readiness to capitalise on available resources, which is promising for the growth of the textile sector.

The current data provides a snapshot of the country’s cotton industry as it navigates market complexities. While the arrival figures are marginally lower than last year’s, the relatively healthy flow trend indicates that, with rising lint prices, farmers and traders are adapting to current conditions following substantial losses due to heat stress and torrential rains earlier in the season.

As the season progresses, continued monitoring by relevant departments will be essential to address challenges and leverage opportunities for sustained development in this critical industry.

On the trading front, textile consumption stands at 2.59 million bales. The current cotton stock, at 0.50 million bales -- comprising 0.14 million bales of pressed cotton and 0.36 million bales of ‘phutti’ -- represents a decrease compared to the 734,737 bales held in stock last year, translating into a notable decline in overall cotton availability.