Can COP29 break the climate deadlock?

The forthcoming annual UN meeting on Climate Change (COP29), hosted by Azerbaijan in Baku on November 11-22 is being held amidst geopolitical, economic, and climatic upheaval.

The Middle East situation remains unabated; hostilities affecting Ukraine and Russia have persisted; fiscal hardships in developed countries have led to reduced foreign aid pledges; and burgeoning economic woes of developing countries have amplified the adverse effects of climate change.

A spate of climate disasters such as widespread flooding in Eastern Europe, colossal hurricanes Helene and Milton in Florida and endemic famine in several African countries following prolonged droughts have accentuated the severity of climate crisis. The looming prospect of the reelection of the world’s most deadly climate change denier as American president has cast a dark shadow over the horizon.

The significance of the Baku Climate Summit has been enhanced by concerns among climate experts over the lack of progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Multiple studies by climate scientists have expressed the fear that the goal of restricting the increase in temperature to 1.5 C compared to pre-industrial levels may not materialise.

Their worries gain credence from the rapid increase in the number and severity of climate-induced extreme events such as floods, hurricanes and storms, sea level rise, heatwaves, droughts and accelerated melting of ice and snow in the glaciers. Unrest among youth groups in the rich countries has grown exponentially.

Azerbaijan is gearing up for hosting its first mega global event which is likely attract up to 40,000 visitors comprising 4000 to 5000 government officials and the rest representing the UN and other multilateral agencies, the business community, civil society and the media. Baku city is being spruced up.

Azeri Ecology Minister Mukhtar Bayef, the designated COP29 president, has visited a large number of countries, including Pakistan, to discuss the COP agenda and garner support for positive outcomes on key issues.

The challenges in Baku have become daunting because several intergovernmental meetings held this year, including the inter- sessional conference in Bonn in June and consultations in New York, have failed to bridge the gaps in positions of developed and developing nations on vital but complex subjects, especially financial support to developing countries for climate related actions. The major issues at COP29 are noted below.

COP29 is billed as the Climate Summit because it has to reach an agreement on what is called the New Climate Quantified Goal (NCQG) to replace the pledge of $100 billion provided by the developed countries for climate actions of developing countries which was fixed in 2009 but met only once – in 2023.

Developing countries are demanding between $500 billion and $1 trillion which, they contend, match the range of funds for implementing their national adaptation plans (NAPs). The European Union claims to have articulated a positive negotiation stance on NCQG but has not divulged the amount contributed by its members.

A related issue is what to include in the finance package : developed countries include all funds, including interest bearing loans in the quantified goal; poor countries reject inclusion of loans in climate aid saying their economies are already reeling under debilitating debts.

Yet another finance question is: who should cough up the money? Developed countries demand updating the list of donors in order to include middle income countries that have become rich. This is resisted by China, India and the oil-producing countries.

Finance-related discussions in Baku will also address the reform of global finance architecture, especially the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank as well as regional development banks. The climate community has called for reform and re-capitalisation of the international finance institutions for delivering higher quality finance for developing countries’ low carbon, climate resilient, nature positive and inclusive development plans.

The COP28 decision for the establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund did not indicate how the Fund would be resourced. A fund-raising event held in Dubai had prompted pledges of $900 million for the Fund, a fraction of the lowest estimates for loss and damage-related actions.

In Baku, developing countries are likely to demand a decision on regular, periodic replenishment of the fiscal resources of the L&D Fund which their rich partners will resist. The L&D battle will include unresolved differences over the source of the money: developing countries demand contributions from public funds of rich states which instead prefer diverse sources, including large endowments set -up by philanthropies.

Meanwhile, the pending agreement with the World Bank for operating the Fund must be signed and the Executive Director and other L&D Fund personnel need to be appointed along with finalisation of the rules and regulations concerning activities eligible for receiving funding,

Developing countries continue to lament that the global climate discourse has all along been dominated by the imperative of bolstering mitigation efforts, which has overshadowed their existential challenges of adaptation. Funds earmarked for adaptation are less than a quarter of the total amounts. The compilation of National Adaptation Plans assisted by the UN system has raised hopes of greater attention to developing countries’ adaptation priorities for reducing their vulnerability to climate induced extreme weather events.

In Baku, developing countries will call for addressing all aspects of a comprehensive global goal on adaptation which should reflect the targets set in their National Adaptation Plans as well as the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience agreed at COP28.

The discussions in Baku will aim to further develop the consensus reached in COP28 on the UAE Dialogue on Implementing the Global Stocktake Outcomes calling for measures by states to “ transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems” and the Mitigation Ambition and Implementation Work Programme (MWP) approved by COP27.

A number of countries, including China, have launched domestic schemes of carbon trading but the Paris Agreement’s call for the creation of a robust and well-regulated international carbon market has remained unheeded. At the June climate conference in Bonn, the COP president-designate announced that one of his priorities was to resolve pending technical issues concerning Article 6.

The next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is due a few months after COP29. Climate scientists and activists have called on the world’s large carbon emitters (China, the US, India and oil-rich states) to announce bold and ambitious new NDCs providing for drastic cuts in their carbon emissions.

The World Resource Institute has suggested five priorities should inform the new NDCs. These include: setting 2035 as target year and strengthening emission reductions aligned with the 1.5 C and Net Zero targets; accelerating system-wide transformations by establishing ambitious ,time-bound sectoral targets; building resilience to increasingly dangerous irreversible impacts such as desertification, sea level rise; boosting investments and strengthening governance to turn targets into practice; and putting people at the centre of climate action by creating jobs, improving healthcare and education and skill development.

The writer is a retired ambassador and former UN assistant secretary-general.