Experts highlight flaws in energy expansion plan, urge focus on renewable energy

KARACHI: The latest edition of the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) contains several flaws, including a lack of transparency and vague assumptions, according to a study released on Thursday.

The study revealed that some of the plan’s projections and forecasts were neither fact-based nor realistic, including the financial requirements needed to achieve the targets set out in the IGCEP.

Renewables First (RF) launched the Pakistan Energy and Climate Insights (PECI) dashboard on Thursday, a data platform that consolidates fragmented energy sector data from various sources and presents it in an easily accessible digital format. The dashboard is designed to help stakeholders, particularly non-experts, understand key trends and projections in Pakistan’s energy sector from 2005 to 2035, said Rabia Babar, head of RF’s data team. “The dashboard offers interactive and visual data representations, providing critical information necessary to address Pakistan’s ongoing energy crisis,” she added.

The dashboard was unveiled at an event co-hosted by RF and the Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development (PRIED). At the event, the two organizations also launched the second edition of their study, titled ‘Powering Pakistan’s Future: Pathways to Optimize Affordable and Sustainable Electricity Generation Beyond IGCEP 2024-34’.

The study critiques the third edition of the IGCEP, prepared by the National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC), for numerous flaws, including a lack of transparency and unclear assumptions. The authors pointed out that many of the plan’s projections were neither grounded in facts nor achievable within the financial constraints required to meet the proposed targets.

A key concern raised in the study is the IGCEP’s failure to adhere to its core principle of choosing the least-cost options for electricity generation. “Only 87 megawatts of electricity are projected to be generated through the least-cost option, while the rest of the projects, already committed by the government, fail to meet this criterion,” said Ubaidullah Khan, one of the study’s authors.

As a result, the plan forecasts the construction of a nuclear power plant and several hydropower projects over the next decade, while neglecting renewable energy projects. The study also criticized the government’s focus on hydropower and fossil fuel-based energy production, arguing that it overlooks Pakistan’s global climate commitments, fails to reduce electricity costs, and offers no technological solutions to integrate renewable energy into the national grid.

The study called out the government for ignoring rooftop solar systems, net metering, and the increasing trend of industrial and residential consumers leaving the national grid.In response to these challenges, RF and PRIED presented an alternative IGCEP with multiple scenarios. “Our model addresses the missing factors and shows that, even with the current state of the national grid, we can incorporate at least 20 per cent renewable energy into the national energy mix,” said Khan.

The event also featured a panel discussion where experts highlighted how rapidly the energy sector is evolving. They stressed that the government continues to plan for the present and past, rather than for the future. Panellists argued that with advancements in solar and battery technologies, Pakistan should shift its focus away from expensive hydropower projects and prioritize the adoption of renewable energy.