Hopeful horizons

In September 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped to 6.9 per cent, a significant decline from 31.4 per cent in September 2023. This means the overall rate of price increases has slowed down considerably. While prices are still rising, they are doing so at a much slower pace. Notably, compared to September 2023, the price of wheat flour has actually fallen by a substantial 37 per cent, sugar by 15 per cent, masoor pulses by 7.5 per cent, rice by 7.0 per cent, and ghee by 6.0 per cent. Hard data speaks for itself. Numbers don't tell tales.

Remember the nightmare of May 2023? Motor fuel skyrocketed by a staggering 64 per cent. It was a time of unprecedented struggle. Gas charges surged by 63 per cent, leaving households in a state of severe suffering. Electricity bills shot up by 59 per cent, plunging us into difficulties unlike anything we had ever experienced. It was a time of immense hardship. We didn’t just endure – it was as if we were dragged through a river of fire. But now, that dark chapter is behind us.

We’ve emerged from the storm, and the worst is over. In just 216 days under the current government, the price of petrol has dropped by Rs60 per liter – a remarkable turnaround from those difficult times. There's no denying the data. The numbers speak for themselves.

The benchmark KSE-100 index delivered an impressive annual return of 89 per cent in FY24 in rupee terms, while in dollar terms, the return was even higher at 94 per cent. There must be a reason the Pakistan Stock Exchange is celebrating; such extraordinary returns reflect a significant turnaround, boosting investor confidence and signaling positive momentum in the market. You can't argue with numbers. Numbers don't lie.

Pakistan's merchandise exports recorded an 11 per cent growth, rising from $27 billion in the previous year to $31 billion. Exports to China increased by over 14 per cent, reaching a total of $3.6 billion. The country's textile and apparel exports saw a modest increase, climbing to $16.6 billion. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s IT exports experienced a significant surge, growing by 24 per cent year-on-year to $3.2 billion, up from $2.59 billion in the previous fiscal year. The numbers speak volumes.

In June 2024, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) implemented a 150 basis point reduction in its key policy rate, marking the first rate cut in five years. Last month, the SBP further lowered the policy rate by an additional 200 basis points, bringing it down to 17.5 per cent. On October 3, the cut-off yield on 6-month T Bills fell to 14.4 per cent. This monetary easing is expected to alleviate the government's debt servicing costs and reduce the interest burden on the private sector, thereby enhancing liquidity and stimulating capital investment. Data is impartial. Facts are neutral.

Numbers are verifiable. Data is tangible. The economic sentiment is positive, and the outlook remains optimistic. First-quarter exports have surged by 14 per cent, reaching $7.87 billion. Foreign exchange reserves have risen to $10.7 billion, and the rupee has remained largely stable.

Facts are measurable. Statistics are quantifiable. The economic outlook is bright. To be certain, negative signals are emanating from the political and judicial spheres. The turbulence in these areas has the potential to undermine economic momentum and erode the gains made. As Pakistan navigates these complexities, the risk persists that political instability and judicial uncertainty could overshadow progress in the economic domain, dampening the optimism and silver linings we currently observe.

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. He tweets/posts @saleemfarrukh and can be reached at: farrukh15@hotmail.com