US election uncertainty clouds UN climate finance progress

WASHINGTON: Countries could use next week’s U.N. meetings in New York to resolve big differences over boosting the world’s annual goal for climate finance, but uncertainty over the U.S. election could jeopardize progress ahead of the next U.N. climate summit in November.

Negotiators told Reuters that countries were reluctant to stake out their positions before knowing who might win the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential vote and be setting climate policy for the world’s largest economy – and biggest polluter – for the next four years.

But by waiting until November for that answer, countries could be risking the chance of reaching a new deal before the world’s current $100 billion financing pledge expires at the end of this year, the negotiators and observers warned.

“The elections are in the calculus” of global climate talks, said finance negotiator Michai Robertson of the Alliance of Small Island States.

Governments are analyzing different scenarios for possible wins by Vice President Kamala Harris, who along with President Joe Biden helped pass the biggest domestic climate spending bill in U.S. history, or by former President Donald Trump, a climate denier who wants to boost fossil fuels. They’re also considering a third scenario with the U.S. in limbo for months over an uncertain or delayed election result.

“It’s an unspoken understanding that U.S. election uncertainty is affecting how countries are positioning,” Robertson said. While some wealthy countries have said they’d offer more money – they aren’t saying how much more and instead want to “wait to see what direction the U.S. will go.” This week’s U.N. General Assembly marks the last all-country gathering before the COP29 climate summit begins on Nov. 11 in Baku, Azerbaijan – less than a week after the U.S. vote.

But agreeing on a new target, and whether to expand the donor base, is proving tricky. U.N. climate agency chief Simon Stiell has estimated the annual need to be in the trillions in order to adequately help poorer countries shift to clean energy and prepare for the conditions of a warmer world.

Failing to set a new target before the start of 2025 could jeopardize future climate negotiations, warned a senior official with Azerbaijan’s COP29 presidency. Azerbaijan doesn’t even want to consider the possibility of failure, the COP29 official said.