Pakistan on the verge of change

It is a bitter truth: Power cannot foresee the change; it lives behind the smokescreen of self-righteousness and authority; believes it has the magic stick to tackle challenges and opponents; it becomes aloof to the desires and sufferings of the people. Power, however, forgets change is an inevitable and permanent phenomenon. Change has its own dynamics and ways of proceeding and leading in the future.

The most recent example is Bangladesh. Despite having all the instruments of authority and control, Sheikh Hasina’s government could not resist change. I spoke with renowned scholar Rashed Titumir, a professor at Dhaka University, to understand the reasons behind the recent uprising, and why Sheikh Hasina’s government could not control it. From the discussion, I made a few observations.

First, livelihood opportunities are extremely important, and discrimination can lead to chaos. Uprising in Bangladesh started with a discriminatory job quota announcement and culminated with the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government.

Second, economic development is vital to maintaining stability, peace and security. The development, however, must be inclusive, and there should be no islands of prosperity in the society. Unfortunately, inclusive development aspect was missing to a larger extent in Bangladesh. This led to concentration of wealth and resources in a few hands.

Third, concentration of wealth led to inequality. Data shows in 2023, top 10pc own 41pc of income, and the bottom 10pc has 1.31pc of income. The vast gap created a wedge between the two classes, and people became annoyed with the State.

Fourth, the lies cannot be sustained, and people cannot be made fools indefinitely. Moreover, we are living in an era of data and accessible information. Hence, facts cannot remain hidden. The government showed exceptional growth by hiding the rising debt. The data indicates Bangladesh’s debt increased by 85pc during the Sheikh Hasina period.

Fifth, growth can never substitute for inclusive development. It is undoubtedly required to stimulate development. But, growth without inclusive development is a curse for any country.

Sixth, poverty, inequality and discrimination breed insecurity, and it is common knowledge insecurities sow the seed of change. It is a matter of time before people come out for a change.

The seventh lesson is crucial: once insecurities cross the shock-absorbing capacity of people, discrimination leaves no way-out, and inequality rules society, then nothing can stop the change. People become indifferent to the respect of institutions, personalities and history. The fall of Sheikh Mujeeb-ur-Rahman statue, the father of the nation, is the most prominent example on this front. The only thing that can reverse the process is justice, more specifically social justice. People need a real change in their lives, not promises or hollow slogans.

There are many similarities if we compare the socio-economic situation of Bangladesh and Pakistan. Pakistan seems to be on the verge of change. All indicators of change are pretty evident in Pakistan, and stagflation further complicating the situation. People have been budged down by higher inflation and shrinking income sources. They are struggling to sustain life, let alone a decent life.

Government statistics show 39 percent of population lives in poverty. However, independent sources contest/disagree with this number. The most common reason for this disagreement is food insecurity. The data shows 58.8pc of population is food insecure, and food insecurity is the most acute form of poverty. On the other hand, 26 million children are out of school, casting a dark shadow over the country’s future.

On top of everything, youths are in search of decent jobs. Unfortunately, the jobs are controlled by the ruling elite and retired government officers and bureaucrats.

Pakistan is at a crossroads, and it’s up to the power circles to decide how to deal with it. Whether wisdom will lead the way of change or egos, selfishness and pity interests will determine the future. Wisdom tells us the present system cannot deliver prosperity to ordinary citizens; the system has turned Pakistan into a home of multiple and multifaceted problems. If you talk to anybody, he/she has a story of sufferings.

Unfortunately, the power center, power brokers and ruling elite are not ready to accept reality. They are busy enjoying perks and protocols. They do not even care whether Pakistan has money or not, what the state of economy is, or how people are surviving. Inflation has gripped the country right now, and Pakistan is recklessly borrowing to run the country.

Moreover, instead of fixing the problems, a lollipop of BISP or Ehsaas is being offered to avert the crisis. These programmes are fascinating case studies that help us understand the dynamics of power abuse. These programmes were launched to help ordinary people, but these have been turned into another avenue to abstract benefits. They have deputed favourite persons with lucrative packages to run the show, who are helping them to use these programmes as political bribes to attract votes. Through these programmes, they are teaching begging and destroying human capital and intent to change.

These tactics cannot stop the change. The Bangladesh story reinforces the argument, as ignoring the real issues does not help but leads to undesired results. The Bangladeshi elite ignored the problems and concentrated on cementing authority and control. Sheikh Hasina had full authority and control, but could not deliver inclusive development. Instead of fixing the problems, she preferred to enjoy the system’s authority and perks. The flatters encircled her and she could not see the signs of change.

Pakistan must learn from President Xi how wisdom helps to lead the country. He assumed leadership at a time when China was facing challenges, including corruption and unequal development. Against these challenges, President Xi started his journey by presenting the third principal contradiction: “What we now face is contradiction between unbalanced and inadequate development, and the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life”. It was recognition of challenges and a resolve to solve these challenges.

First, he launched an unprecedented anti-corruption drive and spared no one. Second, he steered the country to become a poverty-free country. Third, he is leading the country to achieve the goals of high-quality development and a prosperous society.

It was not easy to tackle the challenge as it was a humongous task. However, he applied wisdom to construct suitable instruments, policies and governance systems. He opted for people-centric governance and made the people centre of devising and implementing policies. He ensured economic growth must be for inclusive development. He did not hire consultants or go to the IMF, World Bank or retired bureaucrats. He trusted indigenous wisdom and encouraged young leadership to deliver.