A recipe for regional mayhem

The 34th report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team submitted to the UN Security Council, pursuant to the latter’s resolution 2734, makes for sombre reading.

The UN report, which was released in the last week of July, provides an overview of the daunting challenge of transnational terrorism, including the budding alliances between terrorist organizations such as the TTP and Al-Qaeda, the scale of their operations and the potential dangers for regional and global peace and security if the global collaborative efforts are not made to stem the tide of militancy.

The report identifies Afghanistan as the epicentre of terrorism where the presence of the ISIL (or ISKP), TTP, Al-Qaeda in the Subcontinent (AQIS), the East Turkmenistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) has shaped complex security dynamics that not only threaten Pakistan but also have the potential to spill over to the wider region.

In what is a clear validation of Pakistan’s position, the report highlights the increased terrorism challenge posed by the TTP. It notes the Afghan Taliban’s active support, patronage and protection to the TTP inside Afghanistan, factors that have enhanced the latter’s operational capacity to the extent that the TTP even targeted Chinese nationals working on a dam project in March this year.

The report says, “There is increased support and collaboration between TTP and the Taliban, sharing manpower and training camps in Afghanistan and conducting more lethal attacks under the banner of Tehrik-e Jihad Pakistan.”

The more worrisome aspect of the UN report is an ongoing collaboration between Al-Qaeda and the TTP. Al-Qaeda, which remains dormant in Afghanistan, is actively involved in imparting training to local Afghan fighters and TTP operatives including suicide bomber training in the Kunar province.

Despite its inability to conduct large-scale external operations, Al-Qaeda is forming collaborations with regional terrorist organizations such as ETIM, TIP, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and Jamaat Ansaarullah with a focus on expanding itself into Central Asia. It is also using its period of dormancy to reorganize itself and ramp up training activities in an enabling environment of Afghanistan.

It is in this context that the increasing cooperation between the TTP and Al-Qaeda can lead to the former becoming an umbrella organization for other terrorist groups. This development, the UN report notes, will escalate the threat against Pakistan. Complicating this scenario is the report’s ominous finding that ETIM/TIP and Jaish-al-Adl have jointly planned and executed attacks on Chinese interests.

With the TTP becoming a leading organization in a regional terrorist syndicate actively assisted and facilitated by the Afghan Taliban, the security risks for Pakistan will multiply manifold. The report notes the intensification of TTP-perpetrated terrorist attacks inside Pakistan (more than 800 attacks documented during the reporting period), which mainly targeted military installations. These attacks represent a marked increase from 573 and 203 incidents of terrorism in 2021 and 2023 respectively.

The report also highlighted the role of Al-Qaeda in promoting cooperation between the Majeed Brigade and the TTP. The Majeed Brigade has already claimed responsibility for two terrorist attacks, one on the Gwadar port complex on March 2 and another on the naval air base in Turbat. These attacks were perpetrated to send a warning to investors. The report also mentioned one of the member states’ concern at the possibility of a future nexus between the TTP, Majeed Brigade and ISK, which will pose a renewed threat to Balochistan and Sindh.

The report noted the TTP’s use of the modern weapons left by the Nato/US forces in Afghanistan including night vision capability, which they have used in attacking the border posts of the Pakistan military. The collaboration with Al-Qaeda will further help the TTP get access to weapons funded by Al-Qaeda.

Pakistan has consistently highlighted the threat posed by the TTP. Over the years, Islamabad has stayed engaged with the Taliban authorities in Kabul to convince them to rein in the TTP. It has also called for more international efforts to suck the financial and operational oxygen out of the TTP and other terrorist organizations that directly threaten Pakistan’s security.

While the Afghan Taliban have been fighting ISIL, which has challenged them ideologically, operationally and territorially, the interim authorities in Kabul have chosen to ignore Pakistan’s pleadings vis-a-vis the TTP. As noted by the UN report, they have rather given complete support and autonomy to the TTP to carry out the terrorist attacks inside Pakistan. Without the impunity granted to the TTP, Pakistan’s security challenges could not have acquired the kind of dangerous levels they have in the last two years.

Despite the non-accommodation of Pakistan’s very genuine security concerns by the Afghan interim government, the country has shown strategic patience. Pakistan’s approach to dealing with the TTP has been characterized by four planks.

First, the Pakistan Army has demonstrated proven capability in eradicating terrorism, destroying its vast network and securing peace in the country. The anti-terrorism campaigns include kinetic actions, intelligence-based operations, and developing a national consensus to purge Pakistan of terrorism of all huesand colours.

The fact that the TTP was pushed to Afghanistan from where it is carrying out terrorism inside Pakistan says a lot about the success and efficacy of the military operations. Pakistan will continue to deal with the TTP with an iron hand, going forward.

Second, in bilateral engagements with Afghanistan, the Pakistani authorities have reminded the Taliban that the TTP remains a major hurdle in the Afghan Taliban’s efforts to win international recognition and become part of the global community. The Taliban have been told that the impunity provided to the TTP will lead to the establishment of a wider, regionalized terrorism syndicate, whose terrorist actions will bring a heavy cost for Kabul.

Third, Pakistan is engaging in quadrilateral and six-member regional forums to build a consensus on addressing the issue of terrorism emanating from Afghanistan. These forums involve collaboration with neighbouring countries and regional stakeholders such as Russia, China, and Iran to develop a unified approach to counter the threat posed by terrorist activities originating from Afghan soil. The aim is to strengthen regional cooperation, enhance security measures, and work together to ensure stability and peace in the region.

Fourth, Pakistan has actively worked with the UN and the wider international community to promote a synergy of approaches to fight terrorism. It has asked the UN Security Council to demand a clear and identifiable set of actions from the Afghan authorities.

While a roadmap was presented by the UN envoy on Afghanistan, a coordinated policy is missing on how to ensure its implementation by leveraging all possible means. An approach where the countries work at cross-purposes will only embolden the terrorist groups to continue their actions unimpeded. Therefore, Pakistan has campaigned to build an international consensus against terrorism.

The UN report is essentially a reminder that the problem of terrorism is far from over. It is also a wake-up call for those who think the TTP is Pakistan’s problem only. Such a narrow-minded and self-serving approach ignores the lesson of history and plays down the potential of a terrorist organization growing into a regional behemoth.

The writer is an alumnus of the University of Sussex and has a degree in international journalism. He tweets/posts @Amanat222