Lessons from the east

The sudden resignation of Sheikh Hasina, prime minister of Bangladesh, has sent shockwaves through many struggling democracies. Her departure to a safe location in India on a military helicopter, coupled with the military’s refusal to grant her a final address to the nation, demonstrates a theatrical shift in Bangladesh’s political landscape.

The crisis in Bangladesh escalated from student-led demonstrations against a quota system for government jobs. The situation rapidly deteriorated into violent clashes, resulting in over 200 deaths last month. This turmoil, combined with economic challenges – GDP growth dropping to 3.78 per cent from 7.0 per cent the previous year and inflation hovering around 10 per cent – set the stage for military intervention.

When people discuss the ‘Asian Tigers’, they often refer to Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan – countries that experienced rapid growth between the 1960s and 1990s. Recently, Bangladesh seemed poised to join this group. However, the current economic and political instability has dimmed these prospects.

For Pakistan, the developments in Bangladesh are a stark warning. Pakistan, already lagging behind Bangladesh in several metrics, must heed these lessons. Pakistan faces its own set of challenges: inflation around 12 per cent, a lack of jobs, and a significant portion of its youth seeking better opportunities abroad.

Those left behind are frustrated, grappling with a polarized political landscape. The politics of polarization is not just a looming threat; it is a reality. Provinces are at loggerheads, and individuals in power use politics of hate and resentment to maintain their relevance. This needs to stop.

According to the latest Pakistan Economic Survey for 2023-24, over 13.53 million Pakistanis have officially migrated to work in more than 50 countries by April 2024. This places Pakistan in the seventh position among the leading countries of migrant origin, according to the International Migration Report of 2022.

When young talent leaves the country in such significant numbers, it is a clear indication that the country has failed its youth. For additional perspective, consider the contrasting situation in India, where young Indians are increasingly choosing to stay and build their futures at home. This stark difference highlights the challenges Pakistan faces in providing opportunities and stability for its younger generations.

A seemingly small event, like the student-led protests against a quota system for government jobs in Bangladesh, can rapidly escalate into a revolution or even lead to the toppling of a government. In Pakistan, we are experiencing socio-political tensions across almost all provinces. One single incident could spark nationwide protests, putting countless lives at risk. The people of Pakistan are losing patience. If they do not see meaningful change in the next few years, we might witness scenes similar to those in Bangladesh or the uprisings of the Arab Spring.

In Pakistan, we’re already witnessing the erosion of the separation of powers, with state institutions often at daggers drawn. This ongoing conflict exposes deep fault lines within our governance structures, undermining the integrity and effectiveness of our institutions. Such a breakdown not only hampers the functioning of the government but also erodes public trust in the state’s ability to govern fairly and effectively.

Identity politics is another significant threat to the country’s stability. When segments of society feel marginalized or sidelined over extended periods, it breeds resentment and unrest. Provinces such as Balochistan, for instance, have long felt neglected and marginalized. This sense of exclusion has already led to significant unrest, and if not addressed, has the potential to escalate further.

For too long has Pakistan has focused on pointing fingers at its neighbours for its instability. It is time for the country to take responsibility for its own shortcomings. Internal conflicts among provinces and divisive politics have weakened the nation. What happened in Bangladesh serves as a reminder that Pakistan needs to revamp its structures within the power corridors and work in unity for socio-economic and political development.

The likelihood of future undemocratic interventions in Pakistan is uncertain. While a formal takeover seems improbable in the near term, unforeseen circumstances could change the dynamics. Observing recent developments in Bangladesh, where unexpected political shifts have occurred, it becomes clear that anything is possible. As former US president Harry Truman aptly remarked, “Politics is a fascinating game”. In other words, expect endless possibilities in the world political arena.

Self-reflection is crucial for Pakistan. It is imperative for the nation to learn from Bangladesh’s crisis and implement necessary reforms to prevent a similar fate. An essential step towards national healing and unity would be to address historical grievances Bangladesh may hold in relation to the 1971 war. This could pave the way for a fresh start and improved relations between the two countries. And help us move on for self-healing.

The writer is an academic in the UK.