Trump on the horizon

While the world is getting ready for the possibility of America being led by Donald Trump, we in Pakistan may also have our reasons to closely watch the rise of a leader who is like, well, Donald Trump. But don’t let me be diverted by what is happening in Pakistan. That would be too disconcerting. And we cannot visualize the outcome of many crises that are brewing.

Trump is certainly a valid excuse for my column this week. On Thursday, he accepted his nomination as the presidential candidate of the Republican Party and the acceptance speech he delivered is being carefully examined for clues as to what his second administration could be like.

A national convention that nominates the party’s presidential candidate every four years is always a grand spectacle. Democrats and Republicans have both had some historic moments on such occasions. However, the Republican convention held this week in Milwaukee was marked by an extraordinary sense of drama. Trump, the party’s charismatic leader, had just survived an assassination attempt at a campaign rally.

In fact, the visuals that the assassination attempt provided have raised the electoral spirits of the Republicans. That the bullet just brushed his ear was seen as some kind of divine intervention. In his speech, Trump said that he felt safe because “I had God on my side”. This is how religion is invested in his campaign. For his followers, he dodged that bullet because he is the man of destiny. Here is a classic example of how the cult of personality works.

We are familiar with how this kind of populist, even demagogic, leadership can thrive in developing societies and illiberal democracies. What does this mean in a country like the United States, the foremost and the most powerful democracy in the world? Does this also have implications for the evolution of democracy in a global context?

Indeed, the definite edge that Trump had acquired in opinion polls against President Biden of the Democratic Party was also a measure of Biden’s very obvious vulnerabilities as a candidate. How can he not step aside? This would also be a comment on America’s political system. Anyhow, the focus here is on the Trump phenomenon and how it has trounced its liberal adversaries.

I find it instructive that The New York Times had published an editorial earlier this month with this heading: “Donald Trump is unfit to lead”. It was written by the newspaper’s editorial board, “a group of opinion journalists whose views are informed by expertise, research, debate and certain longstanding values”. The word ‘values’ was underlined.

What are the main arguments of this editorial, though it did not mention that Trump had been found guilty of 34 felony charges by a New York jury? It said: “He is dangerous in word, deed and action. He puts self over country. He loathes the laws we live by”. Finally, the editorial, calling Trump “a chilling choice”, urged “voters to see the dangers of a second Trump term clearly and to reject it”.

For that matter, what does a second term of Trump really promise? I have noted how the acceptance speech Trump made has prompted serious analyses. He spoke for an hour and a half, the longest acceptance speech in America’s political history. There were some mixed messages, for sure. A number of assertions he made were found to be false or not accurate or out of context in fact-checking done by the media.

Besides, Trump does not always do what he threatens. This time he did seem to be promoting a softer image, compared to what he aimed to do during his first term. For instance, he had tried to ban nationals from a list of Muslim-majority countries. He had refused to accept his defeat in the 2020 elections, and it was his campaign of misinformation and falsehoods that led to the attack on the Capitol in Washington by his loyalists on January 6, 2021.

American elections will be held on November 5, near the end of a year that is remarkable for the number of countries that have held national elections. There were also unscheduled parliamentary elections in France and presidential polls in Iran. This should ideally presage a new era for democratic governance and people in general should feel more empowered and liberated in a social sense.

But just look at the rising social unrest in many of the countries that have held elections earlier this year. Pakistan’s example would fall among countries where elections were not credible, – though not for the first time. Violent protests by the students in Bangladesh this week also indicate that the democratic process has not functioned effectively.

In some ways, Trump’s victory, which is largely expected, is not likely to be seen as a vindication of democracy by the liberal and broad-minded elements of the country. Some of America’s traditional allies may not be pleased with this outcome. Yet there are bound to be cogent reasons why a conservative leader who professes to be a saviour can gain the loyalty of such a large number of people.

“Trump got to be president by sowing discord and division”, wrote columnist Maureen Dowd. “His incredible rise was possible due to a coarsening of culture, plagued by the nastiness on social media, and a decline in our society and our courts”.

Another columnist, Bert Stephens, expressed an opinion that may tickle the brains of many of us in Pakistan. He said: “There is nobody in America whom the gatekeepers hate more than Trump. Ergo, there is nobody in America whom the haters of the gatekeepers love more than Trump”.

All this means that moves made on America’s political chessboard in the coming weeks will hold the attention of the world. Sadly, the Democratic Party is not really alive and kicking in this bitter contest for power, mainly because of the role that President Biden had assigned to himself. But things may radically change – for better or worse.

The writer is a senior journalist. He can be reached at: ghazi_salahuddin@hotmail.com