The evolving ISKP threat

Many eyebrows were raised when militants affiliated with the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP), a regional chapter of the IS, attacked Crocus City Hall in Russia in March this year. The latest data shows a death toll above 140, with over 500 people injured.

Emerged around a decade ago, the ISKP has orchestrated a host of gruesome terrorist attacks in recent years, like the Kabul airport attack in August 2021; the Russian Embassy attack in September 2022; and the attack on the Pakistan Embassy in Kabul early December 2022, to mention but a few. However, this time around, in the heart of Russia, it has flexed its proverbial muscles, brandishing its capability to execute high-profile attacks anywhere in the world.

What sets this militant organization apart from others is that it is not laser-focused on one particular country or region. Here is how this monster is a serious threat to many governments in the region it actively operates in and beyond. The ISKP has China in its crosshairs for the latter’s alleged Uyghur suppression. It is also opposed to China for what it calls ‘economic imperialism’. This came to light in September 2022 when the ISKP subjected China’s global economic expansion to scathing criticism in an article published in ‘Voice of Khorasan’, an English-language magazine published through the ISKP’s official media arm, the Al Azaim Foundation for Media Production.

Similarly, for the de facto Afghan Taliban government, the ISKP continues to remain a daunting challenge in Afghanistan. The Afghan Taliban claim to have accelerated efforts against the government and that they are hell-bent on combating the ISKP threat. Their counterterrorism capacity, however, remains limited. Moreover, the Afghan Taliban continue to be choosy. For example, they are fighting against the ISKP but continue to harbour TTP militants.

The Afghan Taliban too are aware that the ISKP is a mutual threat, but they are reluctant to take action against TTP militants, fearing they may join forces with the ISKP. The strained ties between the two over this dispute have provided the ISKP with a new opportunity to exploit the space. Fast forward, the ISKP is not too small a threat. Apart from its growing capability to launch global attacks, it has undergone a thorough transformation under its current tricenarian leader, Sanaullah Ghafari also known as Shahab al-Muhajir. Among many other strategic adaptations, having had its propaganda tool enhanced is one prominent example.

Needless to mention, militant organizations were already making the most of social media platforms, but the advent of generative AI has provided them with an even more sophisticated tool to further their propaganda. And the ISKP appears second to none in this race. For its propaganda, it is generously utilizing AI, making it a more complex threat. For instance, it recently released its first AI-generated bulletin. The video was in Pashto with the anchor’s audio fully lip-synced. While the (mis)use of AI by militant organizations has increased risks, states too can utilize it to counter online propaganda.

AI tools can help detect and remove extremist content from online platforms, mitigating the risks of terrorist propaganda. In this regard, the 2021 joint report by the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Centre (UNCTC) and the United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute (UNICRI) is the best guide. Moreover, before things go out of control, there is a dire need for concerted efforts to combat the mushrooming threat. It merits mention that the Afghan Taliban cannot defeat the ISKP threat without any external support.

At least in this part of the world, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) needs to take up the torch. Russia and China may seize this opportunity by enhancing counterterrorism cooperation with regional countries, a majority of whom have by and large remained dependent on the West for it. Notably, intelligence-sharing is also vital. It can help prevent future attack(s) and minimize risks for potential targets.

Reportedly, on March 7, Washington warned Moscow of imminent plans by extremists, what President Putin termed a proactive statement from the West, a few days before the Concert Hall attack. This is a glaring indication that trust is seeing new lows between Russia and the West, apparently due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. The mistrust should not be allowed to provide space for militants to exploit. There is no denying the fact that terrorism is an equal threat to all and can only be rooted out through collaboration. Time is of the essence.

The writer is a police officer with an interest in international affairs and social issues. He tweets/posts @Numanbacha20