Heatwaves, monsoon: Rise in dengue, viral illnesses feared

ISLAMABAD: An ‘exponential rise’ in dengue and other vector-borne viral illnesses is feared across the country, including Islamabad, in the weeks ahead, following back-to-back heatwaves and upcoming monsoon rains, health officials, experts and epidemiologists have warned.

They say the global prevalence of dengue has been the highest on record so far this year, with many countries reporting higher-than-usual case numbers. The situation is no different in Pakistan, where climate change-related extreme weather events, including heatwaves and torrential rains, have become the norm in recent years.

“Dengue cases are already on the rise in Karachi, where over 10 people have died at three health facilities, and hundreds have tested positive for dengue. The same situation is seen in Lahore and other cities of Punjab, but we are expecting an exponential rise in dengue cases following the monsoon rains which are about to commence,” an epidemiologist associated with a federal health institution told The News on Tuesday.

Citing the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the health official said as above-normal monsoon rains were predicted across Pakistan, they feared an exponential rise in dengue and other vector-borne illnesses, including chikungunya and Zika virus infections in the country. “We have reports that hundreds of people are getting sick due to dengue and chikungunya in Karachi, and now we have learned about the circulation of the Zika virus in our environment. Considering the global trend, we fear that vector-borne viral illnesses will rise exponentially in the weeks ahead,” the expert warned.

Citing a recent health alert by the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), he said that from January 1 - June 24, 2024, countries in the Americas reported more than 9.7 million dengue cases, twice as many as in all of 2023 (4.6 million cases). Meanwhile, in India, over 1,000 cases of dengue were reported in Bengaluru alone within a 20-day period, he added.

“The mosquitoes responsible for spreading dengue, Chikungunya and Zika are moving to more areas due to the warm climate, and the upcoming hot and humid months will provide the best breeding environment for them to spread and cause deadly viral infections,” he warned.

The World Health Organization (WHO) also stated that about half of the world’s population is now at risk of dengue, with an estimated 100–400 million infections occurring each year.

In view of the emerging threat, the Islamabad Health Care Regulatory Authority (IHRA) issued an alert for healthcare establishments across Islamabad, warning of an ‘exponential rise’ in dengue cases in the coming days. “We have witnessed an increase in dengue cases and are expecting a dengue outbreak due to climate change, growing urbanization, and favourable conditions following the monsoon season,” IHRA’s Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Dr Quaid Saeed told The News. He said they had directed all healthcare facilities in Islamabad to allocate a certain number of beds for dengue patients as per isolation SOPs, train their staff to deal with a dengue outbreak, and start awareness campaigns regarding the symptoms of the disease and when to seek treatment.

“We have also directed all diagnostic labs and hospitals not to charge more than Rs 100 for a Complete Blood Count (CBC) and Rs 1,800 for Dengue NS1 Elisa,” Dr Saeed said, warning that their teams would monitor the health situation and compliance with their directives.

However, District Health Officer (DHO) Dr Zaeem Zia was less concerned about the upcoming situation, saying that dengue was now a ‘routine’ matter and its cases rose during the monsoon season and afterwards without causing any serious health emergency. “The most important thing is prevention and seeking medical treatment promptly if sick. People should not let mosquitoes bite them by taking preventive measures, using repellents, wearing clothes that cover the whole body, using mosquito nets and other precautions,” Dr Zia said.

He advised that if a person became sick and had symptoms like fever, muscle and joint pain, headache, pain behind the eyes, or red spots on the skin, they should seek medical assistance and get tested for dengue.

“We have provided rapid testing kits at all our health facilities, and if a person tests positive for dengue, timely treatment can prevent complications,” he added.