‘Changing power dynamics in India indicate ongoing transformation’

Islamabad:The shifting dynamics of power and influence in India, due to the setback for BJP in the recent elections, reflect a symbolic change but it remains inconclusive and merely marks the beginning of a transformation process.

Although it may appear that the BJP’s popularity has declined due to the advances made by the India alliance, but in substance the opposition’s approach towards most issues fundamentally mirrors that of the BJP. Historical events such as the 1965 and 1971 wars and the Babri Masjid demolition during Congress rule demonstrate this similarity. Additionally, the redistribution of votes is largely attributed to the Muslim-Dalit alliance rather than a genuine decline in the BJP’s influence.

While the centralisation of power within the BJP is unlikely to decrease significantly even in a coalition government, increased legislative checks and balances on the BJP, along with an expansion of civil society space, are expected. This indicates that the current political landscape is in a “to be watched” phase, with both strengthening and weakening factors at play for the coalition, both internally and externally.

These views were expressed during a session titled “Understanding Indian Ambitions in Changing Domestic Dynamics” organised by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS), Islamabad. The session was chaired by Khalid Rahman, chairman IPS, and moderated by Ambassador Syed Abrar Hussain, vice chairman IPS, while the keynote speech was delivered by Dr Syed Muhammad Ali, a policy analyst and strategist, Dr Khurram Abbas, director India Study Centre, Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad, Dr Asma Shakir Khawaja, executive director, Centre for International Strategic Studies AJK, and Brig(r) Said Nazir, a defense analyst.

India’s strategic behavior is deeply influenced by identity politics, stemming from a sense of insecurity among its elites, noted Muhammad Ali. This insecurity is rooted in the perception that while non-Hindu rulers, Muslims and British, successfully governed a united South Asia, Hindu leaders could not. This identity politics has fostered a bipartisan ambition among all political stakeholders to establish India as a dominant Hindu superpower.

Muhammad Ali further observed that the ways and methods of this strategic aim could be affected by a vocal and consolidated opposition in the Indian parliament. Nonetheless, India is going to realise this strategic aim through its toolkit of information, diplomacy, economy, and military strength. These elements collectively form the backbone of India’s efforts to assert its dominance on the regional and global stage.

Dr Khurram highlighted the emerging checks and balances within the Modi government due to coalition politics as an important shift impacting BJP policy decisions. This might compel Modi to prioritise allies’ selective support.