Media’s brain drain hype proved wrong: study

LAHORE: The big hype of brain drain from Pakistan has been ruled out in a recent research report titled ‘Pakistan Migration Report 2024’, conducted by the Centre on Migration, Remittances and Diaspora (CIMRAD), Lahore School of Economics.

The report says that contrary to the media hype of the unprecedented brain drain, the exodus of highly skilled and highly qualified professionals is a misinterpretation of the official data. The percentage of highly qualified/skilled out-migrants has remained less than 10 per cent of all registered migrants for most of Pakistan’s migration history since 1971.

The Pakistan Migration Report 2024, third in the series published biennially by CIMRAD was launched here on Tuesday. Chief of Mission, International Organization for Migration (IOM) Pakistan Mio Sato was the chief guest at the launch event. The ceremony was held at the Lahore School of Economics, Burki Campus. Rector of the Lahore School of Economics Dr Shahid Amjad Chaudhry opened the proceedings of the ceremony.

The report points out that irregular migration remained a concern, especially in Europe in 2022, making Pakistanis one of the top 10 nationalities entering Europe illegally. Only 15 per cent of the Pakistani asylum applications succeed, and 14.3 per cent of repatriation orders were executed in 2021.

The 2024 report reveals that the international out-migration numbers have returned to pre-Covid peak levels. The outward migration plummeted from 625,000 in 2019 to less than 300,000 during 2021 but surged to 862,000 by 2023 as the pandemic’s effects waned. A significant portion of workers continue to migrate to Gulf countries, with Saudi Arabia retaining its position as the top destination, attracting half of all migrants.

However, the report notes that around half of Pakistani labour migrants are still categorized as low-skilled or unskilled, despite a shrinking demand for such workers in Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, the UAE experienced a notable increase in migrant inflows in the post Covid period, rising to 27 per cent. The report also points out the low level of women’s representation in the international labour force migration -- just 0.94 per cent of the total.

According to the report, the trend in officially recorded remittance inflows contradicts those of migration, signifying the use of unofficial channels to send money. The primary factor influencing the remitter’s choice of medium was the exchange rate gap between the official and market rate.

By January 2023, says the report, the gap was estimated to be around 4.0 per cent which meant that families of remitters using unofficial channels were receiving a higher PKR amount. This was reflected in the 12.6 per cent decline in remittances during 2022-2023. The trend in 2023-2024 (July-May) has remained passive.

The report recommends that given the importance of remittances as a key source of foreign exchange providing the necessary buffer against the country’s persistent trade deficit, they merit due consideration in exchange rate policy decisions.

The report also discusses the role of Roshan digital accounts (RDAs) in leveraging diaspora savings for mobilizing investment in the country.

The repatriated amount from these accounts as a proportion of total inflows increased from 2.4 in 2020-2021 to 37.7 per cent in 2022-2023 due to uncertain macroeconomic and political situation in the country.

However, the trend seems to be improving in 2023-2024; during the first three quarters from July 2023 till March 2024 the net inflows have exceeded the preceding year’s inflows. But the share of investments in Naya Pakistan certificates, Roshan equity and other government securities, real estate and mutual funds remains small in the total inflows, indicating that an enormous potential remains to tap into the savings of the Pakistani diaspora.

During the launch ceremony, Mio Sato pointed the need to expand and strengthen regular pathways of migration that are orderly safe and dignified. To achieve this, she discussed three key aspects: enhancing government technical capacity; aligning migrants’ skills with market demands through skill training programmes; and raising awareness about opportunities and risks at all stages of migration from pre-departure to arrival, stay, return and reintegration.

She further emphasized on the adoption of people-centred and evidence-based solutions. She also offered an optimistic perspective on migration, seeing it as a pathway for human development and economic growth for both home and host countries through the blending of diverse cultures and perspectives.

Former joint director of PIDE Dr GM Arif while agreeing with the findings of the report highlighted the positive impact of migration on the domestic labour force in terms of enhanced skillsets which are brought back by the returning migrants mainly from the Gulf. He termed it as a brain gain.

Dr Shahid Amjad Chaudhry proposed migration as a solution to the high population growth rate of Pakistan by training the working population in the health and education sectors that are high in demand globally.