The kingmakers who will determine Modi’s future

After falling short of a majority in India’s election, Narendra Modi’s future is now in the hands of two notoriously unreliable allies, reveals a piece for Bloomberg by Saket Sundria and Swati Gupta.

Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party was leading in 240 seats, short of the 272 needed for an outright parliamentary majority. He can still form a government if his National Democratic Alliance sticks together — but that is no sure thing.

Modi claimed victory for that coalition Tuesday, calling it a “historical feat in India’s history,” and signaled that he intends to return as prime minister.

Two main allies in his coalition with the most seats — Telugu Desam Party in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh and the Janata Dal (United) in the eastern state of Bihar — are led by two veteran politicians who have often switched sides over the years. And both of them only re-joined Modi’s coalition in the months leading up to the 2024 election.

“All of those coalition partners are relevant because now they’re kingmakers,” said Irfan Nooruddin, who researches Indian politics at Georgetown University. “Without them the BJP doesn’t get to form a government, and Mr Modi doesn’t get to be prime minister for a third time.”

Here’s a closer look at some of the kingmakers who may determine Modi’s fate:

Nitish Kumar, leader of the Janata Dal (United): Kumar joined the BJP-led alliance only a few months before polling began in April. Since 2010, he has changed political allegiances four times.

He’s governed Bihar, one of India’s poorest states, for almost 18 years by forming alliances that allow him to continue as the state’s chief minister. In 2022, he broke with the BJP and became one of the architects of the opposition alliance, before flipping back to Modi’s camp.

With Modi’s party falling short of a majority, social media is rife with Nitish Kumar memes, who’s poised to win 12 seats. He met Modi at his residence Monday, the day before the votes were counted.

N Chandrababu Naidu, leader of the Telugu Desam Party: Naidu is another leader who has switched sides on several occasions. A member of the BJP-led alliance, Naidu’s TDP pulled off a win in the simultaneously held assembly elections in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh. His party is also leading in 16 of the 25 seats the state sends to parliament. Last year, Naidu was arrested over allegations that he misappropriated public funds but he is expected to return as the state’s chief minister even as his party has confirmed its alliance with the BJP.

“It is a pre-election alliance which will continue going forward,” Vijaya Kumar Neelayapalem, a spokesperson for the TDP, said Tuesday. “The party’s manifesto and seat sharing was decided on that basis.”

Some local newspapers reported that Modi, as well as Home Minister Amit Shah, spoke with Naidu over the phone on Tuesday.Mamata Banerjee, leader of the All India Trinamool Congress: A long shot is India’s only female chief minister, who is part of the opposition I N D I A alliance. A fierce Modi critic, Banerjee is unlikely to partner with the BJP. But unlikely alliances have been forged in India following other close elections, and she does have some history with Modi’s party: Some two decades ago, she served as a minister in a BJP-led federal government.Banerjee’s relationship with the main opposition Congress party, which she quit to form her regional outfit, is also fraught with tensions. The ostensible partners are contesting against each other in several constituencies in the state.