Modi vows to retain power even as BJP loses India majority

NEW DELHI: India’s Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi claimed election victory on Tuesday but the opposition said voters had sent a clear message after his party lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in a decade.

Final figures were not expected until Wednesday, with counting going late into the night. According to the Election Commission of India (ECI) website, BJP has won 240 seats, but had lost 61 seats it had won in previous elections. The Indian National Congress has won 99 seats, besides gaining 45 seats.

These numbers contrast sharply with 2019 results when the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 353 seats, 303 of which were bagged by the BJP alone.

Commentators and exit polls had projected an overwhelming victory for Modi, whose campaign wooed the Hindu majority to the worry of the country’s 200-million-plus Muslim community, deepening concerns over minority rights.

But Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) failed to secure an overall majority of its own, figures from the election commission showed, meaning it would need to rely on its alliance partners. India has placed its faith in the ruling coalition “for a third consecutive time”, Modi wrote on social media platform X, referring to the BJP and its allies.

“We will continue the good work done in the last decade to keep fulfilling the aspirations of people.”

The main opposition Congress party was set to nearly double its parliamentary seats, in a remarkable turnaround largely driven by deals to field single candidates against the BJP’s electoral juggernaut. The opposition INDIA alliance led by Rahul Gandhi’s centrist Congress party was leading in over 230 seats, more than forecast. “The country has unanimously and clearly stated, we do not want Narendra Modi and Amit Shah to be involved in the running of this country, we do not like the way they have run this country,” Gandhi told reporters, referring to Modi’s powerful number two, Home Minister Shah. “That is a huge message.” Gandhi said Congress would hold talks with its allies on Wednesday and decide on a future course of action, when asked if the opposition would try to form a government. Full results are likely later on Tuesday evening.

With nearly 99 percent of votes counted, the BJP’s vote share at 36.7 percent was marginally lower than it was in the last polls in 2019. Modi was re-elected to his constituency representing the Hindu holy city of Varanasi by a margin of 152,300 votes -- compared to nearly half a million votes five years ago. The election commission figures showed the BJP and its allies on track to win at least 291 seats out of a total of 543, enough for a parliamentary majority. But the BJP itself had won or was leading in only 239, well down from the 303 it took five years ago, while Congress had won or was ahead in 99, up from 52.The BJP’s numbers were likely pulled down by the party’s poor showing in the country’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, which also sends 80 lawmakers to parliament. The party was leading in 33 seats in the state, down from the 62 it won there in 2019, with analysts saying bread-and-butter issues had overshadowed the BJP’s appeal to the Hindu majority.

Among the independent lawmakers elected were two serving time in jail -- firebrand Sikh separatist preacher Amritpal Singh, and Sheikh Abdul Rashid from the occupied Kashmir, who was arrested on charges of “terror funding” and money laundering in 2019.

Celebrations had already begun at the headquarters of Modi’s BJP before the full announcement of results.

But the mood at the Congress headquarters in New Delhi was also one of jubilation. “BJP has failed to win a big majority on its own,” Congress lawmaker Rajeev Shukla told reporters. “It’s a moral defeat for them.”

Stocks slumped on speculation the reduced majority would hamper the BJP’s ability to push through reforms.

Shares in the main listed unit of Adani Enterprises -- owned by key Modi ally Gautam Adani -- nosedived 25 percent, before rebounding slightly.The blue-chip NIFTY 50 .NSEI sank 5.9% and the S&P BSE Sensex .BSESN tumbled 5.7%, posting their steepest decline on an election outcome day since 2004, when a BJP-led coalition lost power. The rupee also fell sharply against the dollar and benchmark bond yields were up. Markets had soared on Monday after exit polls on June 1 projected Modi and BJP would register a big victory, and the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was seen getting a two-thirds majority and more.

Modi’s opponents fought against a well-oiled and well-funded BJP campaign machine, and what they say are politically motivated criminal cases aimed at hobbling challengers.

US think tank Freedom House said this year that the BJP had “increasingly used government institutions to target political opponents”. Arvind Kejriwal, chief minister of the capital Delhi and a key leader in an alliance formed to compete against Modi, returned to jail on Sunday. Kejriwal, 55, was detained in March over a long-running corruption probe, but was later released and allowed to campaign as long as he returned to custody once voting ended. “When power becomes dictatorship, then jail becomes a responsibility,” Kejriwal said before surrendering himself, vowing to continue “fighting” from behind bars.

Many of India’s Muslim minority are increasingly uneasy about their futures and their community’s place in the constitutionally secular country. Modi himself made several strident comments about Muslims on the campaign trail, referring to them as “infiltrators”.

Muslim voters seem to have veered away from the BJP, as per data released by the Election Commission. This, however, did not translate into an advantage for the Congress. In 2019, out of 103 Muslim-dominated seats, the BJP had won 45, Congress 11 and others 47. This time around, the BJP won 35 seats, Congress 12 and others 55.

The polls were staggering in their size and logistical complexity, with 642 million voters casting their ballots -- everywhere from megacities New Delhi and Mumbai to sparsely populated forest areas and the high-altitude Himalayas. “People should know about the strength of Indian democracy,” chief election commissioner Rajiv Kumar said Monday, calling the counting process “robust”.

Based on the commission’s figure of an electorate of 968 million, turnout came to 66.3 percent, down roughly one percentage point from 67.4 percent in the last polls in 2019.

Analysts have partly blamed the lower turnout on a searing heatwave across northern India, with temperatures over 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit).