Afghanistan, safe haven for TTP, threatens Pakistan and regional security

As the sun rose over the bustling streets of Islamabad, a sense of unease hung in the air. The recent 33rd report by the Analytical and Sanctions Monitoring Team of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) had painted a concerning picture.

Afghanistan was emerging as a new breeding ground for terrorism, and TTP was receiving growing support from Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda. This development posed a significant security threat not only to Pakistan but to the broader South and Central Asian region as well.

The UNSC report revealed TTP’s operations were being conducted from Afghanistan, making it a regional threat. The report highlighted the attacks carried out by TTP were receiving direct and indirect support from the Afghan territory. Two entities were identified as key sources of this support: Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda.

The report detailed how the Afghan Taliban were not only sympathetic to TTP’s ambitions but were also actively aiding them. This support included providing weapons for cross-border attacks against Pakistan, with some Taliban fighters even joining TTP ranks. The report further revealed Afghan Taliban were turning a blind eye to TTP activities within their territory, despite Pakistan’s continuous urging to take action.

The UNSC report also exposed Al-Qaeda’s involvement in strengthening TTP’s capabilities. This included providing training for suicide attacks led by Hakeem al-Masri from Al-Qaeda’s Kunar province base. He would hand over vehicles and fighters to TTP to facilitate attacks within Pakistan, and collaborate in specific operations, such as the September attack in Chitral.

The report highlighted how TTP was employing tactics to evade pressure from Pakistan. They were operating under a different name—Tehreek Jihad Pakistan—to downplay their connection. They encourage Afghan nationals to join their ranks to potentially increase their manpower and arrest and migrate members to areas away from the border to avoid Pakistani operations.

The UNSC report provided specific details on the extent of Afghan Taliban’s support for TTP. It revealed Afghan Taliban were providing financial aid of $50,500 per month to TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud. They were also supplying sophisticated weaponry, including M24 sniper rifles, carbines, M16 rifles and night-vision devices.

The UNSC report’s findings raised serious concerns about the future of regional security. The potential implications were far-reaching and deeply concerning.

The TTP’s emboldened operations with Afghan backing could lead to a significant increase in violence within Pakistan. This would destabilise the country and threaten the safety of its citizens, who had already endured years of conflict and unrest.

The report exposed a clear violation of Doha Agreement by Afghan Taliban, which had stipulated the Taliban would not allow Afghan soil to be used for attacks against other countries. This could lead to deterioration in relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan, further hindering regional stability.

A resurgent TTP operating from Afghanistan could pose a threat to the wider South and Central Asian region. This could create a power vacuum that other extremist groups could exploit, further destabilising an already fragile geopolitical landscape.

The potential economic consequences of TTP’s resurgence were equally alarming. A 2023 report by World Travel and Tourism Council suggested a 10pc decline in tourism arrivals in Pakistan could translate to a loss of billions of dollars in revenue and millions of jobs. A 2022 study by Asian Development Bank found a direct correlation between political instability and reduced foreign direct investment in developing countries. The Pakistan Business Council estimated cross-border attacks in 2010 (a period of heightened TTP activity) resulted in trade losses exceeding $2 billion.

The human toll of TTP’s activities was also a grave concern. A 2021 survey by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime revealed in countries experiencing ongoing violence, a significant portion of the population suffered from anxiety and depression. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre reported Pakistan currently faces one of the world’s largest protracted internal displacement situations, with millions displaced due to various conflicts. Renewed TTP activity could exacerbate this issue, further disrupting the lives of innocent civilians.

Moreover, a 2023 study published in the journal “Studies in Conflict and Terrorism” found a strong link between perceived government effectiveness in maintaining security and public trust in a country’s institutions. It suggested TTP’s resurgence could erode the Pakistani people’s faith in their government’s ability to protect them.

The UNSC report’s findings necessitated a multi-pronged approach to address this emerging threat. The international community, particularly UN Security Council, needed to exert significant pressure on the Afghan Taliban to fulfil their obligations under the Doha Agreement and dismantle TTP safe havens within their territory.

Despite the current tensions, Pakistan and Afghanistan needed to find common ground and establish communication channels to address TTP threat. Intelligence sharing and coordinated efforts to disrupt TTP activities were crucial.

Additionally, Pakistan needed to further strengthen its border security measures to prevent the cross-border movement of TTP fighters and weapons.

Addressing the root causes of extremism, such as poverty, lack of education and political marginalisation, was also essential for long-term peace and stability in the region.

As a conclusion, the UNSC report served as a stark warning of the growing threat posed by TTP operating from Afghanistan. As the sun sets over the troubled region, the people of Pakistan and their neighbours held their breath. They hope the international community and the governments involved would take swift and decisive action to address this looming crisis. The consequences of inaction were simply too grave to ignore.

The author is Geo-political analyst and former information minister Balochistan. He tweets@Jan_Achakzi