Pakistan-India detente?

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s response to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who in a brief tweet extended his congratulations to Sharif for assuming the post of PM, garnered wide attention.

The exchange of political tweets between the leaders of two hostile neighbours was perceived by many as an icebreaker between the two governments after an extended period of no contact. However, it was not significant enough to be assumed as a beginning of a detente. While analysts have argued that Islamabad and New Delhi should adopt an incremental approach towards normalizing diplomatic relations and resuming trade, experts believe it might be a most vexing test.

Both Pakistan and India have clearly expressed their prerequisites for normalization of relations. Pakistan has remained firm over its call for revision of Article 370 of the Indian constitution; this was also part of PM Sharif’s election mandate. However, India’s stance on A370 has hardened particularly since the Indian Supreme Court verdict on upholding the revocation of Article 370. India considers the subject of Article 370 off the agenda of bilateral ties while Pakistan does not.

What appears more concerning for Pakistan is Article 35A of the Indian constitution through which the BJP government aims to inorganically alter the demographics of the disputed region to strengthen its foothold. As long as India disregards the Kashmir dispute, Pakistan will continue to internationalize it.

On the other hand, India has often correlated Pakistan with cross-border terrorism and has emphasised zero tolerance over the matter. Unless the new government in Pakistan takes measures to dispel this notion, Indian strategists will continue to raise red flags. These aspects are likely to strain bilateral ties.

Moving post-election, the new government in Pakistan would likely start by prioritizing the revival of the economy before considering normalizing ties with India. Also, the weak coalition government in Pakistan has limited power to make decisions on India without all stakeholders on board. On the Indian side, analysts state that the subject of Pakistan is no longer on the table in New Delhi as they believe it to be a high-cost and low-rewarding matter. India’s focus has been on securing a seat on the higher table as evident in its ventures such as the latest Agni-V MIRV tests.

New Delhi has been fixated on moving beyond the discourse of Pakistan. The BJP’s tactics have been to isolate Pakistan regionally as well as globally. India has been bolstering BIMSTEC and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), while purposefully decaying Saarc as Pakistan is a member. Pakistan also remains off the agenda in New Delhi due to growing anti-Muslim rhetoric under Modi’s India.

India is experiencing a unique rise of religious hyper-nationalism under the Hindutva ideology, which the BJP government has openly adopted from the RSS. The Hindutva ideology is a movement for the national reconstruction of Hindustan through the otherization of Muslims, Sikhs, Christians, Dalits, Adivasis and other minorities in India.

Over the last decade, the BJP government has systematically introduced measures that limit and suppress the civic and religious freedom of these minorities including through surveillance, harassment, violent mob attacks, demolition of property, detention and ghettoization. Discriminatory laws such as the recently enacted Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) have gathered widespread opposition including from the US State Department and US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF).

Hate speech and misinformation against Muslims has spread like wildfire due to social media. This hate against Muslims has particularly exacerbated during the election seasons as seen during the inauguration of Ram Mandir on the site of the centuries-old Babri Masjid. India Hate Lab (IHL), a Washington-based institution, documented about 668 hate speech events targeting Muslims and inciting violence against Muslims in India. Such a climate of religious hyper-nationalism in India has made it difficult to secure popular support for the normalization of ties with Pakistan.

The US Annual Threat Assessment Report 2024 predicted that Islamabad and New Delhi might sustain the present fragile calm in their bilateral ties. While chances of normalization of bilateral ties appear far-fetched, there could probably be two likelihoods for the resumption of dialogue between New Delhi and Islamabad.

First, another Sharif government has raised some hopes for improvement of relations with India. This is due to some success in the normalization of ties with India in the past under former PM Nawaz Sharif. Second, PM Modi’s possible third term in the government could be an incentive for the BJP to improve ties with Pakistan after the election dust settles.

During his third and possibly last term, PM Modi, like previous Indian Prime Ministers, might pursue improving ties with Pakistan to make it part of his legacy. Even if such a measure is taken by India, experts have questioned its sustainability. Any hostility in the region could prove to be highly detrimental, which is also predicted by the U.S. Annual Threat Assessment Report 2024. This demonstrates that the two governments might experience a tug-of-war between the restoration of ties and the surrendering of their principled positions.

In a situation like this, it remains to be seen if New Delhi and Islamabad will be able to find a middle ground or even opt to catch some low-hanging fruit in a limited space. With this, it also remains to be seen if the two governments will revisit outstanding issues such as the dismissal of trade or the downgrade of diplomatic relations. Experts have stated that any effort for resumption of dialogue or normalization of relations would need to be a mutual effort in the absence of which it will be another era of diplomatic freeze.

The writer is a research analyst in emerging technologies and international security. She tweets/posts@MaheenShafeeq