Without PMLN, Zardari can’t be president

KARACHI: The PPP can get its man — Zardari — in the President House if it has the PMLN’s support. Without allying with the PMLN or the PTI, though, Zardari won’t be able to become president.

On Sunday, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari confirmed that his father Asif Ali Zardari will be the PPP’s candidate for the position of the president of Pakistan. So how does that transpire in a situation where no party holds majority at the moment? For one, the PPP can’t fly solo in this and will definitely need to form an alliance with either the PMLN or the PTI’s independents to get its man in the presidency.

Since PTI founder Imran Khan has for now said no to allying with the PPP, it seems we will be seeing an alliance between the PPP and PML-N. This is why a Zardari presidency may come about.

The numbers will work if they opt for this. Explains journalist Majid Nizami: “The president of Pakistan is elected in a special session of parliament, with the National Assembly, Senate and all four provincial assemblies acting as the electoral college.”

This is as per Article 41(3) of the constitution, which says: “The president shall be elected in accordance with the provisions of the Second Schedule by the members of an electoral college consisting of: (a) the members of both Houses; and (b) the members of the provincial assemblies.”

Nizami elaborates on the process, explaining that for the vote to elect the president, “members of the National Assembly and Senate have single votes — one person, one vote. But for the provincial assemblies, the system is a little different.”

Balochistan Assembly is the smallest assembly, with 65 members. To ensure equality and fairness, the process of the provincial assemblies voting for the president takes the smallest assembly as the prototype for the number of votes.

Nizami explains that, while in the “Balochistan Assembly, the vote is one person, one vote, the other provincial assemblies are represented through 65 votes as well.” How is this done? “This is calculated by dividing the total numbers of members in other assemblies by 65 and then figuring out how many members make one vote.”

For example, if the Punjab Assembly has a total number of 371 members, their presidential vote will be calculated by dividing 371 by 65. Nizami adds that “obviously without the PMLN, the PPP won’t be able to get their own president. It is either that or they ally with the PTI.”

As of the latest figures, the numbers look somewhat like this per Geo’s election cell: independents hold 93 of the National Assembly seats, while the PML-N and PPP hold 75 and 54 seats respectively. In Sindh, the PPP is set to form government while in Punjab the PMLN holds majority. In Balochistan, the PPP looks comfortable. This leaves us with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly where the PTI is set to be in majority.

Head of Geo’s Election Cell Nadia Malik says that since “the PMLN has majority in Punjab, and the PPP in Sindh, KP is the only assembly swept by the PTI. Together they [PMLN and PPP] will have majority in the National Assembly as well. So number-wise I see little hindrance to Zardari becoming president if the allies agree on his name. The big question will be whether the MQM agrees on his name, given their rivalry. But even without the MQM, this should be a safe option.”

The president is elected by all the assemblies, through a secret ballot, explains Malik. She feels that since the PPP itself does not have the numbers, “taking advantage of the secret ballot some PMLN members could decide not to vote for Zardari.” Would they opt for such a step, though? Malik feels that “under the already difficult circumstances of forming a government, I doubt [the PMLN] is in a position to deny the PPP this wish.”