What are we voting for?

Over the coming hours and days, we will know the results of the 2024 election and what it means for our future. While many have claimed that they can easily predict what the outcome is to be, others maintain that surprises could still occur and the final shape of things could look very different from that which is being widely predicted.

The key question before any election however has still to be answered. What, after all, are we voting for and why? The major parties have all put out manifestos. The PPP was perhaps the most determined to put out its manifesto divided into several parts, including pamphlets with summaries of the key points, earlier on in the campaign, and distribute it over social media. But the PML-N and PTI have also come up with their manifestos. The PML-N is looking deeply into the economic future and promising to deliver. The PTI, meanwhile, has spoken about a ‘Shandar Pakistan’ in the future and an escape from a past, which is ‘kharab’ or bad in many different ways. The party has also hinted at a more presidential-like system, with people directly voting for the prime minister.

The truth however is that behind the well-written lines and the carefully portrayed ideas of these manifestoes, there is very little. It is hard to believe that any of the objectives put forward can actually be implemented. The PPP has totally failed to explain this, though it does talk of moving towards a revolution put in place through the constitution under the 18th Amendment. The PML-N too has not quite explained how it will rescue the country from its extremely precarious position and the PTI appears a little confused in what it is aiming for. This is a familiar pattern from elections in the past.

This election is however somewhat different from those held in previous years. There is a much greater element of tension and animosity between the parties and a bigger role played by other forces. But we will need to see how people decide where to cast their votes and how many of them turn out to do so. The turnout will in many ways be crucial to determining what way the election swings and who emerges as the victor in the end.

This brings us to the wider question of what purpose the elections serve. The reality is that people want their immediate problems resolved. They are not interested so much in long-term economic policies as much as they are in short-term outcomes such as a decrease in inflation. In some cases, the inflation has led to suicides. This is a desperate situation. Perhaps the most desperate the country has ever faced. The question for any party then will be how it is going to put forward policies and then implement them to save Pakistan.

The truth is that no party has been very successful in putting forward any clear and trustworthy ambition that people can believe in. Simply big words and nicely manufactured pamphlets or social media posts are not enough to convince people now. After all, Pakistan today has a significant history of democracy even if most of its seven decades or more have been under authoritarian rule. But people everywhere ask why the slogan of Pakistan’s first election, in 1970 – ‘Roti Kapra aur Makan’ – has not been fulfilled even today. They ask how the PPP is to build tens of thousands of houses it has promised for the flood-affected people of the province who are still homeless more than one and a half years after the floods occurred.

The same is true of the PML-N’s vision of an economic turnaround with a return of Nawaz Sharif. There are people everywhere who ask what exactly Nawaz Sharif gave them and if they want more. The PTI has a cult-like following but again it is unclear if people will continue to back it as they have in the past. It is likely however that at least some of its vote bank will stay intact just as will that of the PML-N in Punjab and the PPP in Sindh. The outcome in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in particular will be interesting with the JUI-F vying for power in the province at the same time as its leader Maulana Fazalur Rahman vies for the post of president of the country. This too will be something to watch even if in Pakistan’s strictly parliamentary system, the president has very few real powers.

Perhaps the final decisions will be made by the smaller parties. The TLP has gone out of its way to try and make itself a little more acceptable by putting up slogans such as protecting the rights of minorities. The reality however is that this is difficult to believe given the past of the party. The TLP has however picked up a significant number of votes notably in Punjab in past by-polls and could be a player in terms of determining what voting patterns are in particular constituencies.

It is also possible that at least one or two of the major parties may try to bring it into an alliance of one kind or the other. Other parties in a similar position including smaller groups are either making a comeback or putting up candidates for the first time. Pakistan has over 130 political parties in the fray and the vote that goes out to smaller parties affects the overall situation in the ‘first past the post’ system used in electioneering in the country.

So in the next few days, as talk shows and election specials continue on TV screens, we will know who the victors are or what the party positions are to be for 2024. This is significant. But we also know other powers are significant as well. Pakistan has now been left with no option but to return to the IMF, the so-called lender of last resort, to keep its economy viable and afloat in the given situation. The main question for people then is whether the economy can make any kind of comeback and if there will be some fall in the crippling inflation which has hit almost everyone across the country.

Experts have offered solutions of various kinds. The main one among these is a change in taxation to ensure that land is taxed and that the wealthy pay out more to subsidize the lives of the desperately poor one-third of people in the country. No political party has put forward a clear agenda on this point or stated how it is going to ensure that we see the changes the other countries have been able to make. These include an increase in exports and a decrease in imports. At present, Pakistan has far fewer exports than nations such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, and others in the region. It needs to at least catch up with these countries to bolster its economy and finally be able to stand on its own feet. We need to see what will happen in the weeks that lie ahead. And if any true solution can be found to the many problems of the nation as it goes into its latest polling exercise. 

The writer is a freelance columnist and former newspaper editor. She can be reached at: kamilahyat@hotmail.com