Punjab defies dry spell, expects 13pc rise in wheat output

LAHORE: Punjab province, the country's main wheat-growing region, expects to produce 24 million tonnes of the staple grain this year, up 13 percent from last year, defying a drought that has hit other parts of the country, a senior official said on Wednesday.

The official said favourable prices and timely sowing had encouraged farmers to cultivate wheat on a larger area than usual, offsetting the impact of dry weather.

"In the ongoing Rabi season, farmers show buoyancy and enthusiasm regarding wheat plantation on the back of favourable prices of the commodity, cultivating wheat at a record 17.4 million acres against last year’s area of 16 million acres," said a senior official of the provincial Agriculture Department on Wednesday.

"The nine percent greater area under wheat cultivation has paved the way for harvesting a good crop of 24 million tonnes, showing a 13 percent jump in production against last year’s yield of 21.22 million tonnes."

Commenting on the prevalent weather conditions, the official said that "wheat plants in patches are under stress at different locations due to persistent dry weather but the overall condition of the crop has been satisfactory".

"There is a rain forecast in a week, which may essentially break one of the longest winter dry spells. In this situation, if the weather remains favourable in the coming days and months with several wet spells, we are upbeat about harvesting nearly 24 million tonnes of wheat this year."

This year, the bulk of the sowing was done within the optimal period until November 15 and the use of certified seeds has also been over 50 percent, which are very encouraging signs for producing a good crop.

Against the official production target of 25 million tonnes for the 2023-24 season for the province, the estimated production of 24 million tonnes would be short by four percent. But, still, it would be the biggest output ever produced in Punjab, the largest contributor in grain productivity.

If Punjab succeeds in increasing the yield of wheat as per the estimation, it would help in producing close to 30 million tons of national harvest. Such a progress would greatly reduce the need of importing the commodity.

In the last five years, Punjab’s wheat production has increased from 18.37 million tonnes in 2018-19 to 21.22 million tonnes in 2022-23, showing incredible progress of gaining 16 percent upsurge.

It may be noted that the extended dry weather has cast a shadow on the prospects of harvesting a good wheat crop this year. Agriculture experts have warned that up till now, Pakistan’s wheat and other Rabi crops are facing a severe threat from an extended dry spell that has lasted for months.

The country, which is largely dependent on agriculture for its food security, has received only 1.1 mm of rainfall in December 2023, a 92 percent drop from the average, according to the Meteorological Department. The arid and rain-fed regions, which account for about 2.8 million acres of wheat cultivation, have been the worst hit by the drought, with production feared to be less than half of the normal level.

Met office data for December 2023 showed that Punjab witnessed only 0.2mm of rainfall, which is 98 percent below the average, while Sindh recorded no rain except Jacobabad which reported only traces, Balochistan with 0.8mm or 94 percent below, Khyber Pakhtonkhaw with 4.1mm, Gilgit Baltistant with only 0.3mm or 97 percent below and the Azad Jammu & Kashmir with 7.4mm or 82 percent below the average rainfall, showing excessively below average wet conditions.