Hasina back at the helm

Bangladesh conducted general elections on January 7. Prime Minister of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina Wajid has won the fourth consecutive term in another controversial election. She has been in power since 2009. Overall she has won her fifth term in office.

According to official results, the ruling Awami League (AL) has won 223 seats (34 less than the last elections) in the house of 300 while 62 seats have been won by independents. The only opposition party in parliament, the Jatiya Party (JP), has won just 11 seats (15 less than the last elections). The Awami League won nearly 75 per cent votes polled on January 7.

The turnout was historically low at less than 40 per cent. This is the second-lowest turnout since 1991. According to the Bangladesh Election Commission, the turnout was just around 27.5 per cent one hour before the close of the polls. However many local observers think that this figure is not more than 30 per cent.

The low turnout clearly indicates that there was hardly any enthusiasm and interest in the elections. Bangladesh has a history of high turnouts in parliamentary elections. But it was different this time. More than 60 per cent of voters preferred to stay at home than to cast their ballots. This result means that the new parliament is dominated by the Awami League and its smaller allies. There will hardly be any opposition in parliament.

According to Bangladeshi media, most of the independent candidates are linked with the Awami League and they contested the elections to give some credibility to the whole exercise and create the impression that it was a competitive election despite the boycott by opposition parties.

This election was just an electoral exercise without much substance. It seems that Bangladesh has become a country ruled and controlled by just one party; the country has been experiencing one-party rule for many years now.

Bangladesh has effectively become more authoritarian under Prime Minister Hasina Wajid’s more than a decade-long rule. The January 07 elections could safely be called ‘sham elections’ as opposition parties were forced to boycott them. The arrests and crackdown against the opposition parties before the elections made it controversial.

The main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) – led by former PM Khaleda Zia, who is currently in prison – announced it would boycott the elections. The opposition parties were calling to hold the elections under a caretaker government. They feared that massive rigging would take place if elections were held under the incumbent government. Prime Minister Hasina Wajid refused to accept this demand and went ahead with the elections.

The opposition parties resorted to street protests and strikes to exert pressure on the government. But they failed to mobilize enough numbers on the streets and build a mass movement mainly due to continued crackdown and high-handed tactics used by the Hasina Wajid government, which finally succeeded in containing the protests with the use of force.

Shaikh Hasina Wajid has had a mixed record of performance since taking power in 2009. On the democratic front, she is facing a trust deficit. She has undermined democratic norms, culture and traditions. She not only went after the opposition but also launched attacks on the media. She has adopted a zero-tolerance policy towards dissent and criticism. She also has a weak record on human rights, civil liberties and multi-party democracy. There is no doubt that she successfully established one-party rule in Bangladesh.

But on the economic and diplomatic front, her record is much better. Bangladesh has experienced high GDP growth since 2009. Its garment exports have grown at a much faster pace. According to the official data released by Bangladesh’s Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), apparel exports reached a staggering $47 billion in 2023.

Bangladesh has become the second largest exporter of garments; wages have increased, but not at the same pace as the profits of the garment industry. Abject poverty has seen a decline. Despite having problems of poverty, low wages, high inflation and lack of public services, the Bangladeshi economy has performed better under Hasina Wajid. Now Bangladesh aims to become a middle-income country in the next few years.

Hasina has also done better on the diplomatic front and has succeeded in drawing a delicate balance between relations with India, China and Western powers, including the US. She is attracting investment from both India and China.

There are two other factors that have largely contributed to her consolidation of power. The miserable failure of the Bangladesh model paved the way for her to clinch power and later consolidate it.

The powerful military establishment and the judiciary tried to restructure Bangladesh’s political system to end the political hegemony of the two parties. The Awami League and the BNP were dominating politics in Bangladesh at that time.

They tried to create a new political force around Exim Bank founder and renowned economist Dr Younas but that effort failed. Elections were delayed for a couple of years to achieve the desired results. But this model failed to take root, and the Awami League won a majority in the January 2009 elections.

Hasina got an opportunity to purge the military and the judiciary after a failed military coup led by religious extremist elements. She used this failed coup to consolidate her power and launched a massive crackdown against religious extremist groups But her opponents were also targeted including the Jamaat-e-Islami and the BNP. She used her secular credentials to target not only militant elements but also her rightwing conservative opponents.

All these factors contributed towards her rise and the weakening of the judiciary, military establishment and political opponents. Her victory clearly tells that her fate is linked to her economic performance.

The writer is a freelance journalist.