PMLN, PPP both eye Balochistan seats — but will they get them?

Unlike the past, major political parties and local groups firmed up their election campaigns only in this last leg of the election process due to the uncertainty surrounding the February 8 general elections. As a result, political parties are still finalising seat adjustments.After electables from Balochistan joined the PML-N in big numbers last November, the party’s chances of forming a coalition government in Balochistan increased. However, the PPP also started making efforts to bring into its fold those electables who didn’t join the PML-N.

Where the PML-N’s central leadership -- Mian Nawaz Sharif, Mian Shehbaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz -- paid one visit to Balochistan, the PPP’s Asif Ali Zardari and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari did so three times and intend to visit more during the election campaign.The PPP attracted the attention of electables/influentials in Balochistan after former caretaker interior minister Sarfaraz Bugti (known for being close to the country’s power brokers) joined the party. Bugti is contesting on a PPP ticket for a provincial assembly seat from his native town Dera Bugti. Bugti was earlier willing to join the PML-N, but – per insiders’ claims – was ‘asked’ to join the PPP and try out his luck for the top slot of chief minister of Balochistan. The PPP has succeeded in getting enough electables and seems satisfied about being able to form a ruling coalition in Balochistan.

The PML-N and PPP will likely end up in a close fight to bag enough seats to form government in Balochistan. Since electables in Balochistan draw support from the powers-that-be, it all really depends on the latter. Political observers say that there is a strong prospect of the PPP winning more seats in the province than PML-N, citing PPP central leaders’ softer attitude towards certain quarters as a hint that the wind has started blowing in the party’s favour in Balochistan.Meanwhile, JUI-F head Maulana Fazlur Rahman is contesting for the first time for a National Assembly seat from Balochistan. He has entered into an alliance with PkMAP’s Mahmood Khan Achakzai, but only for two National Assembly seats. Maulana faces a threat from the PTI’s popularity in his native constituency of Dera Ismail Khan and wants to secure his slot in the National Assembly.

Though Maulana can win the Pishin seat even without PkMAP’s support, he wants to help Mahmood Khan Achakzai win NA-262 -- Quetta City. The JUI-F withdrew its nominee in Quetta against Achakzai who in turn took his nomination papers back from the NA-265 Pishin seat.Achakzai had faced a setback in the wake of the division of his party and has now become dependent on his political foe-turned-ally Maulana Fazlur Rahman for these elections. Achakzai is also contesting from his native constituency NA-266 Chaman-Killa Abdullah against JUI-F nominee Salahuddin Ayubi, who had defeated him in the 2018 elections.

Seeing the JUIF-PkMAP alliance, the Awami National Party, National Democratic Movement and Pakhtoonkhawa National Awami Party (a major ideological group that parted ways with Mahmood Achakzai) have entered into an alliance for seat adjustment. Since this alliance may not be helpful in the elections for its allies except a few constituencies since each group has a different area of influence, it may however serve to slash votes for Achakzai’s party.The JUI-F has also made a deal with Balochistan National Party (Mengal) on NA-256 Khuzdar, extending support to Sardar Akhtar Mengal whose party in turn will support JUI-F nominee Yunis Aziz Zahri on the provincial assembly seat. Mengal is also contesting on NA-261 Surab-Kalat-Mastung and NA-264 Quetta-III as well as on the provincial assembly seat of Khuzdar-Wadh. Mengal has formed an alliance with the Bhoothanis against Jam Kamal, the former chief minister who looks to be in a comfortable position compared to the Bhoothanis. Sardar Salah may retain his provincial assembly seat of Hub, but Aslam Bhoothani is in a weak position on the National Assembly seat.

Arch rivals Sardar Akhtar Mengal and Jam Kamal -- who otherwise are close relatives – are aiming to erode each other’s political influence. Mengal is supporting the Bhothanis while Jam Kamal is extending his support to his enemy’s (Bhoothanis) enemy Ali Hassan Zahri who is close to Nawab Sanaullah Zahri, Mengal’s political and tribal rival.The National Party headed by Dr Malik Baloch has also entered into an alliance with Jam Kamal, the PML-N’s nominee for NA-257 Hub-Lasbela-Awaran and the provincial assembly seat of Lasbela. The National Party is supporting Jam Kamal for the NA and PA Lasbela seats while Kamal will support the National Party candidates for the provincial assembly seats in Hub and Awaran against former chief minister Qudoos Bizenjo, who is a PPP nominee. The PPP’s nominee on the provincial assembly seat of Hub, Ali Hassan Zahri – known to be close to Zardari -- is also supporting Jam Kamal for the National Assembly seat against the Bhoothanis and will in turn get support for his provincial assembly bid.

BNP-Mengal has also entered into an agreement with Mir Yaqub Bizenjo, the son of Imam Bheel Bizenjo, for NA-259 Kechh-Gwadar and the Gwadar provincial assembly seat. The BNP’s nominee Mir Hammal Kamalti is contesting for the provincial assembly seat while junior Bizenjo is aiming for an NA seat. Yaqub was offered tickets by both the PPP and PML-N, but he has decided to contest as an independent candidate. He will probably be facing Dr Malik Baloch, former chief minister and National Party president.

While the PTI doesn’t have much presence in Balochistan, after the recent travails of the party, its popularity has increased -- particularly among the youth. PTI candidates without a party symbol may get a good number of votes, but not enough to win seats. All major political parties like the PML-N, PPP and JUI-F are facing problems regarding party ‘rebels’ – those denied party tickets and now running independently in the elections and making alliances according to their convenience.