ECP’s media code sparks debate on election surveys

KARACHI: Exit polls are a no-no but opinion polls and surveys can be allowed if transparent and scientific, say electoral experts and journalists when asked for input regarding the ECP’s Code of Conduct for National Media.

In October last year, the ECP released its 2024 code of conduct for the media to follow during the general elections and subsequent elections including local bodies and by-elections. Clause 12 of the 2024 code says that “Print & electronic media and any journalist, newspaper, and channel on their official accounts on digital media, and other social media influencers shall refrain from entrance and exit polls or conducting any kind of surveys at any polling station or constituency which may influence the voters’ free choice of casting voters.”

This is a different -- and seemingly more stringent -- clause than the code of conduct issued before the 2018 elections which had said that: “If a broadcaster/newspaper publishes the results of an opinion poll or election projection, they should strive to report the results fairly and in a proper context explaining the scope and limits of such polls that have their own peculiar limitations. Opinion polls should be accompanied by information to assist viewers/listeners to understand the poll’s significance, such as who conducted, commissioned and paid for the poll, the methodology used, the sample size, the margin of error, the fieldwork dates, and data used.”

When asked about the ECP’s condition regarding exit polls and surveys, former ECP secretary Kanwar Dilshad says that “exit polls are in any case not allowed by the ECP, and have not been in previous elections as well. This is because of privacy and secrecy of the vote considerations. Even India has banned exit polls.”

On opinion polls or surveys, he feels that many times such surveys are “planted surveys” and when the results of such surveys “which are based on faulty methodology” are not reflected in the election result “channels start crying rigging”. However, Dilshad also adds that perhaps “the survey rule can be rethought; the exit polls obviously should not be allowed. I don’t think surveys will affect the voter. Prosecuting these surveys will only lead to more controversy and outrage regarding the ECP.”

The ECP’s code does leave room for questions, some asking for more clarity regarding Clause 12. Head of Geo’s Election Cell Nadia Malik says that: “Although the ECP has refrained media and influencers from conducting entry and exit polls and surveys, it is unclear whether it is a total ban. Because Clause 12 prohibits such polls and surveys that ‘may influence the voter’s free choice of casting vote or hinder the process in anyways’, this leaves the option somewhat open and it has not been specified what constitutes as influencing opinion.”

Journalist Ahmad Waleed -- whose Lahore-based channel has faced a Pemra notice in a survey-related matter -- offers a reminder that the “tradition of exit polls and surveys has been practised in many countries including the US for decades... People in Pakistan also want to know which channel is presenting the correct possible projections and it is up to them to decide who gave more accurate surveys or exit polls.” Waleed adds that if polling organizations are allowed to conduct surveys while the media are not, that would be tantamount to “placing curbs on the freedom of media.”

“As a political pollster”, Executive Director Gallup Pakistan Bilal Gilani tells The News that he has read the news about the ECP “banning polls by media outlets and airing of polls before the elections with concern. Political polling in every democracy acts as a messenger from the people to political actors and stakeholders on what the public will is. Targeting the messenger therefore does not bode well for the health of the democracy.” He says that “exit polls on the day of the election provide very useful information on who voted for whom and why since this information is not available in the anonymously casted vote. It provides long-term social trends and helps researchers study the evolution of society.”

While clarifying that the current code does not bar election polls conducted by professional polling firms, Gilani also brings up the issue of survey or polling integrity by adding that “political polling must not be immune to criticism or accountability. There is a need to create public awareness about valid and scientific polls vs polls done in an unprofessional manner or for certain objectives. For this purpose, polling organizations should adopt a minimum standard and code of ethics for self-regulation.”

Journalist Mehmal Sarfraz who also headed the 2018 election coverage for a TV channel feels that many may be “misconstruing the ECP code of conduct” and seeing it as “an attack on media freedom or fear of the popularity of a political party.” She emphasizes that “surveys conducted by organizations like Gallup or Pulse Consultants or others are scientific. If surveys by such companies were banned, then that would be wrong. Media outlets around the world hire such companies to conduct surveys.”

But she does feel that when the media conducts such surveys on its own it skips the proper methodology or sample sizing etc: “Such surveys can be misleading and therefore there is always the risk of influencing the voter in one way or another. This is why many countries don’t allow exit polls by the media to be released till a certain time so as not to influence the voters. This is not to say that the media cannot discuss the mood of the public or what is likely to happen in an election but to push their own surveys as some sort of official voting patterns should be avoided. The media should hire companies that have professional pollsters and conduct surveys through the proper mechanism.”

“The exit poll debate has been going on for decades”, says Director Programs at the Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN) Muddassir Rizvi who agrees with Kanwar Dilshad that conducting exit polls would be contrary to legal provisions regarding elections. On top of that, says Rizvi, such polling also suffers from the tendency of “people wanting to give ‘morally right’ answers even if they will in actuality act differently.”

For Rizvi, “if surveys have integrity and are transparent, then there is no harm in them. But it is up to parliament to decide the limits to when a survey can be done before the election.” More important for him is transparency: “Where is the money for the polling/survey coming from? Who is getting it done? What is the sample of the survey/poll? The whole scientific methodology has to be transparent.”

Rizvi ends on a cautionary note: “One very important aspect is that in Pakistan there are 859 elections --266 for the NA and the rest for PAs. To reach a conclusion on who will win in 266 constituencies you’ll have to do 266 surveys. It can’t be that a ‘national survey’ is done which shows that X party has 50 per cent popularity and Y party has 40 per cent popularity so X will get 50 seats and Y will get 40 seats. It is important to remember that the national sample does not translate into seats nationally.”