To Dar or not

The prospect of Ishaq Dar’s return as finance minister in a PML-N government after the next elections will be a baffling choice. Even a delay in elections still leaves compelling questions over the choice of previously tested and visibly failed leaders to run the economy, which remains the most powerful challenge for Pakistan’s future.

Dar, who led the finance ministry under the last PML-N government, left behind a much-blemished legacy. His track record worth recalling ranged from crossing swords with the IMF whose help was necessary to avert a foreign debt crisis, to a failure to live up to his promise of overseeing a surge in the exchange rate of the rupee.

The subsequent improvement in that rate came about once the former finance minister stepped down and handed over the reins of the finance ministry to Shamshad Akhtar, an experienced economist with prior experience serving Pakistan’s central bank and international institutions.

But beyond the failure of the former finance figure whose claims to fame include his relationship with PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif [Dar’s son is married to Sharif’s daughter], the issue is a wider one. To date, Pakistan’s main political parties are either far from functional as in the case of the PTI, or don’t seemingly care enough about the wider economy. Belatedly, the PML-N and the PPP have announced their manifestos of sorts. Their announcements sound more like populist promises though fall horribly short on how they will make it happen.

For a country saddled with a large stock of debt, a crisis of governance, and a sliding observance of law, there is little hope for a robust economic recovery. The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) made a telling choice when it gave another month to its employees to become filers of tax returns. The step, whose outcome is yet to become public knowledge, badly exposed a horrific gap surrounding the government’s tax machinery.

And the proverbial mother of all economic ills remains unchanged unless Pakistan’s net of income taxpayers extends far above a mere below two per cent of the population. Meanwhile, the advancement of sufferings imposed on Pakistan’s mainstream population in the recent past is a powerfully telling reminder of the widening gap between the rich and the poor. The staggering rate of inflation and interest rates at a profound 22 per cent have left little hope for a near-term recovery.

As Pakistan goes into its next elections – whenever they’re held – two overwhelming questions surround the country’s very future.

First, will the new class of representatives at the federal and provincial legislatures have what it will take to turn the economy around? Their vital agenda, should they accept it, must be to oversee a powerful set of tax reforms ranging from updating the tax law and procedures to revamping the institutional mechanisms in this area. This exercise will remain incomplete without enforcing universal compliance by prospective taxpayers to be enrolled in the collection system. In the process, all holy cows that remain partially or fully immune from paying their dues will have to be forcibly slapped to comply. In brief, progress in this area will be pivotal for securing Pakistan’s very future.

Second, Pakistan’s future economic focus must shed fresh light on reviving what remains a practically flat economy. The obvious pitfalls are tied to a contraction in real terms across Pakistan’s manufacturing and agricultural sectors – the two main areas that provide the bulk of white- and blue-collared jobs. In recent years, sharply growing prices of food commodities have badly exposed the powerful reality of Pakistan’s food deficiency. And the twin challenges of fast-growing food prices alongside the growing threat of environmental degradation together pose the biggest threat to the well-being of middle- and low-income households.

Going by past record, it is hugely doubtful if the same class of rulers returning after the elections will have the commitment or the ability to make radical changes to end the fast-growing pitfalls in these areas. A failure to undertake unprecedented economic reforms however appears to be the only way forward to secure Pakistan’s very future as a stable and progressive nation.

On the contrary, a return to decision-making akin to that under Dar’s tenure risks pushing Pakistan into the era of the economic unknown. A future finance minister treading the path taken under the former PDM government will risk taking Pakistan away from improved economic solvency and stability.

It is imperative for the main party leaders heading into the next parliament to undertake a path to reforming Pakistan as never before. There is too much at stake beyond the prevailing era of noisy politics where rival political parties have made it their mission to fail the others. At risk is not just the future of one party or another. Hugely at risk remains the very future of Pakistan.

The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist who writes on political and economic affairs. He can be reached at: farhanbokhari@gmail.com