Pakistan in a new world

Analysts often promote the perception that the world order has moved away from cooperation and conciliation towards coercion and confrontation but fail to identify the phase when the world was cooperating.

Arguably, there might be isolated domination of liberal thought but at large, the world has remained and continues to be an arena of instability. Experts at the Islamabad Conclave 2023 hosted by the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) delved into the subject of emerging world order to dissect its dominating features.

As the world order is passing a transition, flux remains the dominating feature with new actors taking on important roles. While competition between the US, China, and Russia aggravates, pluralist power centers – which Amitav Acharya and his colleagues state as a ‘multiplexity’ – dominate the world order. A multiplex world order, they argue, has elevated the role of small and middle powers as compared to the great powers. Such a construct takes the foreign policy of states out of the narrowly focused, militarily dominated, bipolar or multipolar world and into a more fluid world order that offers wider foreign policy choices and options.

Due to the availability of wider foreign policy options, the behaviour of states has become noteworthy. Ideologies and sets of values, such as the socialism and capitalism of the cold war, are no longer the pull factors for states; rather, mutual interests in the domain of economic and political interests, and perceived strategic threats have become the primary pull factors for carving a state’s foreign policy.

This is evident in the case of major powers such as the US and China, which disregarded their ideological differences and embraced their economic interest as supreme to continue bilateral trade worth $758.4 billion in 2022. This is also evident in the case of European states’ cooperation with China, and GCC, and China’s cooperation with India. The Abraham Accords for Arab-Israel normalization also stand as a striking example of such a world order. This is where multilateral and minilateralism factors in and such an attitude of states have been predominant on platforms such as the SCO, BRICS, IMEC, and so on. States have opted for this approach as it offers a rational win-win solution for all. It also gives a chance to smaller powers to participate and have an influence in global affairs.

This does not mean that conflicts between these states have ended and the world has adopted an ideal state. Regardless of mutual interests that are primary pull factors, there are push factors that often bring the states to the brink of conflict. Heightened tensions between the US and China in the Indo-Pacific Ocean as well as over Taiwan are a glaring example of this phenomenon. Similarly, the calculated approach of European states towards China and adversarial relations between China and India continue to be the push factors.

In the present world order, states stay afloat because the gravity of pull factors is more than that of push factors. There is also a realization of the inherent risks of direct and open confrontation. This implies that states do not put their mutual interests at stake of an escalation, which allows them to continue their relations while maintaining opposing postures.

Pakistan’s foreign policy choices do not remain detached from the multiplex world order. So far, Pakistan assumes itself to be a relevant and important player in international politics, probably due to its geostrategic location, but on the international stage, it is a periphery state with limited options and a shrinking diplomatic space even with its close allies.

Each passing day is a regression for Pakistan’s foreign policy options, not because of the international political environment but because of internal political instability and the degrading economy of Pakistan. Islamabad must take cognizance of the changing global order and take measures to adapt to it.

Pakistan’s foreign policy has been focused on forging long-lasting friendships that could not materialize as presumed. At the same time, it is driven by a security orientation and dependence on major powers. While security orientation is understandable due to a hostile South Asia, this has made Pakistan highly dependent on the support of the Global North.

Pakistan has made tremendous sacrifices due to such an orientation. In order to move away from a security-oriented foreign policy towards an economy-driven foreign policy, Pakistan proposed a pivot to geo-economics which was a renewed security orientation from geo-strategic to geo-economics. There is still a debate in the policy circles of Pakistan on whether geo-economics is more important than geostrategic or vice versa or both go hand in hand.

Regardless of the answer, geo-economics is being dictated by the security setups rather than the civilian government, probably due to the weaker and disorientated approaches of the latter. This shows that national economic progress is viewed from the lens of security. However, a security-oriented foreign policy will continue to have limited roles and options in a multiplex world order that is eagerly looking for sustainable and result-oriented mutual interests. It is even feared that such an approach might isolate Pakistan.

To enhance Pakistan’s options in a multiplex world order, the experts at the Islamabad Conclave 2023 believed that establishing political and economic stability should be the utmost priority of Pakistan. Political and economic stability in Pakistan would incentivize states to count it in on minilateral and multilateral forums. Due to a tilt towards a security-oriented foreign policy, Pakistan could not even incentivize CPEC as it hoped.

The changing world order demands that Pakistan also forges economic ties based on a barter trade system with the Global South, which is no longer the underdeveloped third world. Though a balanced approach towards major powers such as the US and China is ideal, even maintaining cordial relations with these states is paramount under present circumstances.

Pakistan needs to move fast and beyond the binary terms of ‘this or’ that rather focus on this ‘and that’ such as the US and China, GCC and Africa, and so on. This would diversify options, and maximize opportunities as well as returns, which is how states are navigating in the emerging multiplex world order.

The writer is a research analyst in emerging technologies and international security. She tweets/posts @MaheenShafeeq