News Analysis: Imran’s poll hopes fade but is he out of 2024 contest?

KARACHI: PTI supremo Imran Khan is not yet out of the race to contest the 2024 general elections since the Supreme Court could give him relief in the Toshakhana verdict appeal. But things are not looking too bright for him, say legal and political experts.

Talking to Shahzeb Khanzada on Geo’s Aaj Shahzeb Khanzada Kay Saath on Thursday night, Supreme Court lawyer and PTI leader Sardar Latif Khosa said that the PTI was going to “the Supreme Court [to challenge the verdict] on Friday”, adding that “it is unfortunate that the IHC chief justice has consistently given verdicts against Imran Khan. However, this verdict will be defeated in the Supreme Court so this is not the final decision [regarding Imran’s election contest].”

Talking about the other challenges faced by the party, Khosa added that the PTI had made “alternate plans given all possible scenarios”, with the reminder that “the script is always the same” and that other parties had in the past gone through the minus-one’ formula as well.

Shortly after the IHC dismissed Imran Khan’s plea seeking suspension of the trial court’s verdict in the Toshakhana case, PTI lawyer Naeem Panjutha took to X (formerly Twitter) and said that the PTI “will thwart the conspiracy to disqualify Imran Khan. We will challenge the decision of Justice Amir Farooq in the Supreme Court tomorrow.....if the largest party [does] not take part in the election, what kind of election is this?”

High court advocate Abuzar Salman Khan Niazi, who has been part of the PTI’s legal team on various occasions, tells The News that a candidate’s nomination papers can be filed [regardless of cases etc] but “during the scrutiny stage of these nomination papers, it will be seen whether the candidate is qualified to contest elections or not. If the IHC verdict is challenged in the Supreme Court and the conviction is suspended then there will be no issue at all. So it depends on how the IHC verdict is challenged.”

Speaking to The News, Barrister Ali Tahir first explains the IHC verdict: “Khan’s appeal regarding suspending the judgment in the Toshakhana case has been dismissed. What this means is that even though the sentence is suspended -- that is: he is not facing incarceration (or the less important fine) -- the conviction remains, inclusive of the disqualifications attached with such a conviction, which encompasses electoral disqualification. Hence, the legally paramount point here being that Khan cannot contest elections”.

Tahir says that the only remedy available to Imran now is “before the Supreme Court of Pakistan in the form of a Civil Petition for Leave to Appeal under Article 185 of the constitution. This is because the other purported remedy -- to proceed and conclude his appeal and get acquitted -- is not possible at all in a slow and lingering judicial system, maybe for years to come”.

However, that is not an ideal situation either, cautions Tahir, who says that the appeal before the Supreme Court “may not be a speedy remedy. If experience is to be believed and this appeal takes as much time as Imran’s other appeals, by the time the Supreme Court takes up the matter and decides it for good, it may happen after the 2024 elections have already taken place, hence infructuous in the existing circumstances”.

Abuzar Salman Niazi’s reading of the IHC verdict is that: “As far as the IHC verdict goes, there are two SC judgments -- one from 2005 and one from 2008 -- in which it was decided that sentence and conviction can be suspended together in extraordinary circumstances. What the IHC is saying is that these are not extraordinary circumstances which is why we are not suspending the conviction. In my opinion, if you read Judge Humayun Dilawar’s verdict, it would be best for judicial authorities to suspend such judgments in any case and the conviction should also be set aside. These were extraordinary circumstances.”

For context, Imran was sentenced to three years in prison and a fine of Rs100,000 by Additional District and Sessions Judge (ADSJ) Humayun Dilawar on August 5, 2023 in the Toshakhana case.

Barrister Tahir finds the idea of disqualifying political leaders inherently problematic: “I am of the firm view that such disqualifications for political leaders must not exist, especially since a murderer is allowed to run for office five years after his release from prison, or even less, by way of making a small payment known as Diyat’ in this way a person can murder a person on Monday and run for public office on Friday. This entire idea to disqualify popular leaders, even if temporarily, for simple misdeclarations is beyond legal comprehension”.

According to Supreme Court Correspondent for the Express Tribune Hasnaat Malik, for Imran Khan to contest elections there are “legally very few chances”. He does say though that the Supreme Court does have “the authority to give relief which will be extraordinary.” Malik adds that “One matter is also pending in the Lahore High Court -- the matter of challenging the ECP’s notification of August 8, 2023 -- and Imran should also pursue it.”

Speaking to Shahzeb Khanzada on Thursday night, journalist and political analyst Suhail Warraich said that: “Ideally, all political actors should have a level playing field. Practically, that is not happening and it seems the PTI will have some major disadvantages. It doesn’t look like Imran will be able to get the opportunity to contest elections. This is what the signs point to at the moment.”