Kashmir: what’s next?

By upholding the decisions of the BJP-led government – which include the abrogation of Article 370, the division of Occupied Kashmir into two parts, and the removal of its statehood – the Supreme Court of India has encouraged the government’s ongoing pursuit to completely disempower the people of Kashmir and annihilate their cultural identity and geographical sanctity.

The Supreme Court decision is not an isolated event but part of a larger scheme orchestrated by the BJP aimed at reshaping Kashmir’s political landscape. To set the stage for implementing the BJP’s agenda, the governor’s rule was imposed on Indian-held Kashmir on flimsy grounds in 2018, and the elected government of Mehbooba Mufti was dissolved.

In 2019, the controversial Pulwama suicide attack rocked India. In retaliation, India attacked Balakot, Pakistan, and Modi seized an opportunity for chest-thumping.

In May 2019, Indian Prime Minister Modi’s resounding electoral victory consolidated his political power, positioning him as the key figure in shaping India’s future. To achieve the desired electoral outcome, Modi skillfully used Kashmir as a pawn, and Pakistan bashing served as a political gimmick that resulted in strengthening Modi’s control over the national political scene.

Insiders like Satya Pal Malik, the former governor of Jammu and Kashmir, exposed that the Pulwama terror attack stemmed from a systemic failure characterized by significant security and intelligence lapses. He emphasized that the tragic incident was manipulated for political advantage.

Malik asserted that after he highlighted the security shortcomings that contributed to the attack, Indian PM Modi directed him to maintain silence. Additionally, Malik disclosed that National Security Advisor Ajit Doval also counselled him against discussing the matter publicly.

A dot-connecting exercise reveals that all these events seem pre-planned, interlinked, and skilfully designed to crush the Kashmiri resistance and, simultaneously, garner global sympathy.

In the next stage, the Modi government unveiled a revised list of electoral constituencies in the region, showing increased representation for Hindu-majority areas. This move aimed at weakening the political influence of Muslims in Jammu and Kashmir politics.

The Delimitation Commission, tasked with redrawing the Assembly in Indian-held Jammu and Kashmir, explicitly favoured the Hindu-majority Jammu region. The commission allotted six seats to Jammu and one to the Kashmir Valley. Additionally, allowing outsiders to permanently reside in Kashmir only accelerates the progression of a ‘settler-colonial project’ in a state with a Muslim majority.

In a nutshell, redrawing the constituencies and establishing a settler-colonial project will drastically reduce the number of Muslim members of the J&K Assembly in the upcoming state election in 2024. As a result, the BJP’s long-standing ideologically driven dream of altering Indian-held Kashmir’s Muslim-majority character and ultimately installing a Hindu chief minister in Srinagar will be completed.

To put Pakistan in a defensive position, 24 seats have been reserved in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly for Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan a few days ago. India’s Home Minister Amit Shah said in parliament, “[Pakistan-occupied Kashmir] PoK is ours.”

In March 2020, the Indian government stated that the Union Territories of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh are integral parts of India, as affirmed by a parliamentary resolution in 1994. The government also monitors developments in territories that are “under illegal occupation” by Pakistan.

In 2016, Prime Minister Modi mentioned Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan during his Independence Day speech.

The Indian defence minister has repeatedly boasted that India would gain control over AJK and GB soon. The absence of space for political engagement, ongoing repression in Kashmir, and the frozen diplomatic relationship with Pakistan align seamlessly with the BJP’s brand of militant nationalism.

Despite multiple offers by the previous PDM government, the BJP government seems unwilling to resume talks with Pakistan or pro-freedom Kashmiri leaders unless they announce unconditional surrender before Indian hegemony in the region and accept Kashmir as an integral part of India. A fait accompli.

India’s muscular police will not slow down until the complete extinction of the resistance constituency. Most of the pro-freedom leaders are jailed or silenced. Independent media has been tamed either by arm-twisting or forced to shut down its publication. The office of ‘The Kashmir Times’, the oldest Kashmiri newspaper, was sealed in Srinagar. Now, only its web edition is available.

Pakistan’s international isolation, precarious domestic political situation, and feeble economy have severely curtailed its diplomatic influence, rendering it unable to play the necessary role in halting India’s relentless push to transform Kashmir into the Palestine of the 20th century.

In this challenging scenario, the people of Kashmir find themselves in a catch-22 position, grappling with an existential challenge. Silence in this critical situation is not just passive, it is criminal. The only viable solution lies in forging a broad-based coalition that cuts across political and ideological divides.

A peaceful and indigenous political struggle is the need of the hour to reclaim Kashmiri identity, preserve its cultural ethos, uphold its Muslim-majority status, and regain lost political power.

The writer is a freelance contributor. He tweets @ErshadMahmud and can be reached at: ershad.mahmud@gmail.com