Pakistan signalling shift in strategic culture, foreign policy interests

Functioning as a security state, Pakistan has long formulated its foreign policy choices based on security needs and the aspiration to establish itself as a hard military power, says a report by a US-based think tank.

According to Middle East Institute’s report, the approach has allowed the military to play a leading role in shaping both domestic and foreign policy decisions, often overshadowing civilian institutions. However, with changing global dynamics, the current civil-military establishment is actively signaling a shift in Pakistan’s strategic culture and foreign policy interests.

Gen Asim Munir succeeded Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa a year ago. Apart from stepping into the most powerful role in Pakistan, Gen Asim Munir also inherited the legacy of Gen Bajwa’s military doctrine, which not only shaped Pakistan’s foreign policy but also presented considerable challenges to him to address.

Throughout his tenure, Gen. Bajwa orchestrated a paradigm shift in Pakistan’s traditional geostrategic focus, transitioning from geopolitics to geoeconomics. This shift involved broadening the scope of Pakistan’s national security, moving beyond a primary emphasis on military defence, and recognising economic security as a crucial factor for achieving improved traditional security outcomes.

Gen. Bajwa fell short of fully realizing his vision during his six years in office, with Pakistan continuing to rely heavily on International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans to support its declining economy.

Gen. Asim Munir now faces the challenging task of realising Gen. Bajwa’s vision. This requires cultivating positive interdependence and multi-alignment with a diverse range of partners, while also ensuring domestic stability. An examination of Gen. Asim Munir’s first year in office is crucial to assess his progress thus far and gain insight into the military’s current foreign policy vision.

A crucial aspect of Gen. Asim Munir’s doctrine involves guiding Pakistan away from the strategic dilemma of choosing between the US and China, and avoiding the significant costs it has incurred for Islamabad’s foreign policy.

Gen. Asim Munir has made clear a preference for pursuing a hedging strategy, aiming to avoid getting entangled in global binary politics. His strategic approach focuses on maximising Pakistan’s economic gains to avoid subservience to major powers and increase its room for maneuver. He articulated this vision for defending Pakistan’s sovereignty by building a robust economy, emphasising that, “all Pakistanis must throw out the beggar’s bowl.”

At least three interrelated points characterise Gen Asim Munir’s foreign policy vision, each representing significant challenges he must confront. These observations are drawn from his statements and actions up to this point.

First, he has expressed a commitment to project and advance a softer image of Pakistan. Second, he has demonstrated a keen interest in elevating Pakistan as a regional middle power. Third, he has placed a significant focus on prioritizing geoeconomics over geopolitics.

A state’s image and reputation are pivotal in achieving foreign policy goals. Pakistan’s global reputation is currently plagued by a host of domestic issues, all of which paint a picture of the country as a struggling democracy grappling with internal turmoil. Recent regime changes, the constitutional crisis over the next general elections, growing insecurity and the rise in terrorist attacks, escalating debt, human rights violations, political instability, socioeconomic disparities, growing inflation, and energy crises have all taken a toll on Pakistan’s standing in the international community. The country is increasingly perceived as an elitist state that struggles to address the genuine concerns of its citizens, moving closer to a praetorian state. This negative image is partly due to the hybrid governance model adopted prior to Gen. Asim Munir’s appointment, disrupting the balance of power between civilian and military authorities. At present, there are lingering suspicions that the next general elections, currently scheduled for February 8, 2024, may not take place while Western nations, including the US and EU, have issued warnings about potential consequences if the elections are delayed further or conducted unfairly. Adding to Pakistan’s challenges, a group of US members of Congress recently urged the Biden administration to withhold military aid due to concerns over human rights abuses. Dismissing such negative perceptions, Gen Asim Munir has pledged his commitment to upholding democracy in Pakistan. This underscores a major aspect of the doctrine, which aims to restore the military’s soft image both at home and abroad while retaining its influence in the country’s governance. Affirming Gen. Asim Munir’s position, Interim Prime Minister Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar has asserted that the military’s involvement in state governance is solely due to its organisational capabilities and has dismissed concerns that it might seek to manipulate the elections.

Gen Asim Munir’s foreign policy vision reflects this strategic thinking, as evidenced by his statements and efforts in defense diplomacy. He has expressed his desire to defend Pakistan against internal and cross-border terrorism while simultaneously transforming the country into a stabilizing regional security actor.

In terms of foreign policy initiatives, Gen. Asim Munir has carved out a distinctive path, particularly in relation to India and Afghanistan.

Taking a stern stance toward India, he has issued warnings of a swift proportional response in the event of an attack. He has also accused India of waging a proxy war against Pakistan through terrorist organisations.

Deviating from the traditional friendly ties between Pakistan’s military and the Afghan Taliban and accusing the Afghan government of sheltering anti-Pakistan terrorists, he has threatened a robust military response if Pakistan’s security demands are not met.

The ongoing deportation of 1.7 million Afghans residing in Pakistan is evidence of his stringent policy against the Afghan Taliban. In defence of the massive deportations, he has contended that the expulsion of Afghans would enhance the country’s internal security.

Gen. Asim Munir has articulated his aspiration to safeguard Pakistan’s strategic autonomy and territorial integrity, with the objective of maintaining a neutral middle power status in the global context. This vision may have taken shape as a response to the deliberate strategic maneuvers of middle powers, which have astutely capitalised on the rivalry between the West and Russia, as well as the competition between the US and China, to bolster their bargaining positions, all while avoiding being ensnared in their confrontations. Achieving genuine neutrality may be a tall order though and would require, first and foremost, full independence from foreign aid.

Unfortunately, at present Pakistan is highly reliant on external aid to meet its needs. Bound by geographic, geopolitical, and geoeconomic constraints, Pakistan often finds itself with limited options, at times playing a subservient role to major global powers. In the face of fervent appeals from substantial segments of Pakistani society, calling on the military to lend support to Hamas against Israel and to diplomatically boycott Western backers of Israel, including the US, Gen. Asim Munir has opted to abstain from such actions.

In contrast, he seems focused on navigating Pakistan’s response to the demands of both the US and China without stirring tensions with either side. He has sought to enhance Pakistan-US defence ties, rekindling US interest in the country after a previous inclination to disengage.

A notable case in point is the renewal of the Communications and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA), a crucial element of US-Pakistan defense cooperation, through which the US has extended its offer to assist Pakistan in counterterrorism efforts.

To further solidify ties, he visited Washington in mid-December for discussions with senior US military and Biden administration officials, seeking to strengthen US-Pakistan military cooperation and foster investment in Pakistan by urging the US government to explore opportunities through the newly established Special Investment Facility Council (SIFC).

As for China, despite reports of Beijing’s reluctance to add more projects to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) due to performance issues on Pakistan’s part, Gen. Asim Munir’s renewed commitment to ensuring the security of Chinese interests has injected new life into previously stagnant CPEC projects. One of Gen. Asim Munir’s major foreign policy objectives is to address Pakistan’s economic challenges through cooperation with friendly nations. His vision for Pakistan’s economic growth and prosperity emerged when he took on a diplomatic role in securing funding from the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to fulfill IMF preconditions for a crucial bailout package. While this prevented Pakistan from facing a debt default, it also brought significant embarrassment due to the harsh conditions attached to the IMF bailout in an already crisis-ridden country. Indicating a shift away from geopolitics and toward geoeconomics, he has committed to leading Pakistan toward self-reliance by leveraging its resource advantages. His vision includes a policy aimed at ending dependency and promoting self-sufficiency. To expedite these initiatives, a new “single-window” investment facilitation body, the SIFC, was established under his leadership in June of this year. Its primary objective is to attract foreign investments across various sectors, such as mining, agriculture, information technology, and energy, from affluent Gulf countries, China, and the United States.

Gen. Asim Munir’s geostrategic vision for Pakistan, though it may sound idealistic, has already scored several successes. To revive the domestic economy, he has launched a comprehensive crackdown on corruption, smuggling, energy theft, illegal practices, and unauthorized immigration. He has earned praise for his commitment to revitalizing Pakistan’s economy, presenting himself as the guarantor of stability in the country and the primary point of contact for the international community. This underscores his aim of transforming Pakistan into an important market that can bring together various global economic interests. On the security front, Gen. Munir has escalated military operations against terrorist outfits like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, declining to engage in talks for peace. Furthermore, he has strengthened the military’s defence engagements by forging military cooperation agreements with countries across the Central, West, East, and South Asian regions. Pakistan recently hosted the “Eternal Brotherhood-II” multinational counterterrorism exercise, reflecting Gen. Munir’s two-pronged strategy. Firstly, he aims to capitalize on Pakistan’s pivotal role in combating terrorism originating from Afghanistan, addressing concerns among both neighboring nations and global powers such as the US, China, and Russia. Secondly, he seeks to counterbalance India’s influence by strengthening regional military alliances. The report goes on point out certain risks also. On Gen Asim Munir’s foreign policy goals, It says it remains uncertain whether his expanded role in governance will effectively enhance the military’s softer image and bolster Pakistan’s global reputation, especially given that many of its major challenges are still attributed to the actions of the military establishment. Additionally, establishing Pakistan as a stabilising regional security actor seems to be a daunting task, particularly in the context of heightened tensions with its immediate neighbour, Afghanistan. Achieving a neutral middle power status presents its own set of difficulties, and this objective may prove elusive until Pakistan gains a certain level of economic independence.

To date, Pakistan’s efforts to attract significant new investments from the Gulf states have run into difficulties, given the latter’s predominant focus on the ongoing Gaza crisis. There is limited evidence to suggest that Gulf nations will come to Pakistan’s aid in the near future. As a result, the SIFC has struggled to finalise long-awaited billion-dollar foreign transactions. With limited foreign support available, Pakistan continues to heavily depend on financial assistance from organizations like the IMF and investments from China.

It seems that the most critical foreign policy challenge confronting Gen. Asim Munir is the integration of soft power with hard power. This requires finding a delicate balance between security and economic considerations, necessitating a departure from traditional military strategies to embrace alternative methods of advancing national interests. Given the unique strategic culture of the military, which may lack an understanding of the nuances of civilian affairs and the intricacies of soft power, expectations for progress from Gen. Asim Munir may be limited.

With two more years ahead, the success of his foreign policy hinges on addressing several crucial questions. How does he plan to balance fostering economic growth with Pakistan’s current economic dependence? Could his geoeconomic strategy unintentionally lead Pakistan into another debt trap? To prevent Pakistan from becoming overly reliant on the exploitation of natural resources and transforming into a rentier state, what proactive measures does he intend to take?

Additionally, as Pakistan navigates strained relations with neighboring India and Afghanistan, how will he achieve Pakistan’s long-term security goals? Moreover, how does he plan to navigate its position amid the rivalry between the US and China without taking sides? Importantly, what specific steps will he take to bridge the gap between civilian leadership and the military establishment, ensuring a cohesive and effective foreign policy strategy?