The Taliban spring

Like clockwork, the announcement of the Taliban’s spring offensive in Afghanistan has been accompanied by a renewed assault on the northern Kunduz city. The Taliban had managed to take control of the city last year for a couple of weeks and there are fears they may be able to do the same again. Already, residents are worrying about cell phone signals being blocked, curfews imposed and the strain on the medical sector placed by the bombing of the Doctors Without Borders in the city by the US last year. It is worth noting that Kunduz was only retaken last year by a combination of Afghan and US special forces and private militias controlled by warlords that are unaffiliated to the government and inspire as much fear and terror as the Taliban for their plunder and pillaging. It is this same combination that is once again fighting off the Taliban and while they are likely to succeed in doing so there are some questions that need to be asked. How, for one, is success being defined? If it merely means pushing the Taliban to the outskirts of the city where their fighters can regroup for their next annual assault, then there is little to no hope for long-term peace in Afghanistan.

The other question that must be asked is about the abilities of the Afghan army. This 350,000-strong force still cannot be relied upon to take on the Taliban and needs both tactical and operational help from the remaining US special forces. The policy of relying on warlords will be another unmitigated disaster since it was the rapaciousness of these very warlords which first allowed the Taliban to come to power in the 1990s. Even though the Taliban had restricted themselves to fighting in mainly southern provinces like Helmand in the winter, the Afghan army was unable to even fight them in that restricted space. With the Taliban now attacking the rest of the country at the start of spring, the Afghan army definitely cannot be relied on. Meanwhile, General John Nicholson, the new commander of international forces in Afghanistan, painted an even bleaker picture recently when he said the announcement of Taliban chief Mullah Omar’s death had only drawn the Taliban closer to militant groups like Al-Qaeda. If true, this emerging nexus bodes ill for the peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government, and indeed for peace in the country itself.