Trouble across the western border

Given the paucity of ideas and strategy to deal with the induction of the Taliban government in Afghanistan in the aftermath of the US withdrawal, one could long foresee heating up along the Western border. But policymakers and planners, in the Foreign Office and elsewhere, have mostly remained in deep slumber.

This could either be because they felt genuinely frustrated in their effort to carve a way into the future, or they blundered in believing that, despite the drastic changes which had occurred in Afghanistan, all shall remain within their control. Well, it has boiled over, and for good reasons.

Pakistan has been caught up in an unceasing spate of terrorist attacks with origins across the border. These attacks, targeting the security personnel, have registered a further increase in the recent past, mostly in the proximity of the former Fata region with forays deeper inside the country as well. The onset of terror intensified further after the decision by the Pakistan government to push unregistered Afghan refugees out of the country; they were given till the end of October to move out. This generated immense resentment at multiple levels encompassing the refugee population residing in Pakistan, their country of origin as well as international organizations dealing with the state of refugees throughout the world. The immediate reason why this decision was taken in such haste may never be known, but a fear had lurked for long that some from the refugee community were involved in conducting terrorist operations in Pakistan.

In the meanwhile, and mostly to placate the growing resentment, the government of Pakistan has extended by six months the validity of the registration cards held by the Afghan refugees. These cards had expired on June 30, 2023.

In an ill-advised press conference, the caretaker prime minister has alleged that terrorism operations inside Pakistan were conducted from within Afghan territory. He claimed that the incidence of terrorism had increased by 60 per cent since the induction of the Taliban government. More than 2,000 Pakistanis died on account of these attacks in the last two years alone. During the same period, 64 Afghan terrorists were killed by Pakistani security forces.

He also complained that specific information about these attacks had been shared with the Afghan government, but no credible steps were taken to control these terrorist activities. In fact, there had been a meaningful surge therein during the past few weeks owing to some statements of the Afghan leadership, thus forcing us to take some urgent remedial measures.

He stated that the weapons left behind by the US forces were available in the black market and their use had been confirmed in these terrorist activities, and he hoped that the Taliban government would initiate immediate action against the TTP terrorists based in Afghanistan. He said that this would be in the best interest of both countries.

The choice of taking a public posture on the issue speaks of a virtual impasse reached between the two neighbouring countries which casts an ominous shadow upon the prospect of peace in the region, more notably inside Pakistan, as also the course that the bilateral relations will take in the future. Dealing with the Taliban was never an easy task, but we gravely underestimated the inflexibility of a radical mindset that guides the formulation of policies.

Additionally, we conveniently overlooked the operational partnership between the TTA and the TTP that was instrumental in forcing the US out of Afghanistan. Throughout this period when the war was waging, we lived with the assumption that the Taliban, once they assumed power in their country, would remain obliged on account of the variety of ways we supported them through their worst times when their very survival depended on it. We thought they would also be beholden for the help we extended for the success of the Doha negotiations process leading to the ultimate withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan.

Even more interestingly, we remained consumed with the assumption that we would continue to exercise substantial ‘control’ over the Taliban for a variety of reasons, mostly emanating from their apparent weakness in dealing with the military might that we may wield. As is evidenced by the present times, we believe in the use of ‘force’ to subdue the will and freedom of the people. But this spectrum does not relate to the pride that a people exercise when it may come to defending interests that they consider to be legitimate. In essence, we have been a victim of this fallacious assumption, thus leading to the formulation of a flawed strategy. Not only did it not bring any substantive dividends, but it has often cost us dearly in terms of having to forfeit our strategic interests.

On the face of it, and notwithstanding the optics and the hyperbole involved, the decision of the government of Pakistan to expel the unregistered Afghan refugees is as flawed as the original policy of dealing with a Taliban-led Afghanistan has been. Rather than being an outcome of sagacity and engagement, it reflects a predominant knee-jerk reaction to the recent terrorist attacks which have claimed a host of precious lives of the security personnel as well as ordinary citizens. Agreed that such a situation cannot be tolerated, but it would have been more appropriate to expand and deepen the consultative process, both within the country as well as with people across the border, before resorting to a drastic step like the one that we have taken.

Our foreign policy has incessantly suffered from a basic strategic flaw: that of forgetting that we are part of the South Asian region, and it is here that we are to survive and prosper. This can happen only by pursuing a policy of mutual engagement with other countries at multiple levels. This engagement should become an ongoing process that is not tampered with at any stage, much less during a crisis. The lines of communication should always remain open.

Such an approach also does not envision a policy of inflicting collective punishment upon the entire refugee population in the country for the alleged crimes of a few. This would be both disproportionate and unjustifiable. Those individuals who are found involved in committing terrorist attacks should be held to account without mercy, but the rest of these displaced people must not be forced to suffer for any wrongdoings which they did not commit.

Like in so many other crises that Pakistan faces today, it is time for the state and power wielders to initiate a policy of engagement, with its own people, key stakeholders, and other countries of the region, most notably its neighbour across the western border. Remaining hostage to policies dictated from across turbulent waters will immerse us deeper in trouble with avenues of escape blocked.

The writer is the information secretary of the PTI, and a fellow at King’s College London. He tweets/posts @RaoofHasan