After the carnage

As Israel relentlessly targets Palestinians in Gaza using its overwhelming military might, an immediate end to the destruction seems unlikely. The carnage unleashed upon Gaza in recent days, though without precedent in memory, nevertheless promises to create a more uncertain world once the fighting eventually dies down.

Even if there is a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, the Gaza enclave which is militarily overshadowed by Israel, will continue to reel under the fallout from the latest conflict for years to come. A pause in the fighting and possibly a ceasefire will just become a blip on the periphery of a crisis-prone land.

Peace between Israel and the Palestinians alongside Israel’s journey towards normalizing ties with the Muslim world, will remain stalled for the time being. It is a price that Israel must pay for the revenge it sought from unarmed and broadly innocent Palestinians.

Though Israel continues to use the October 7 attack by Hamas targeting Israeli territory as the prime provocation, what has come later in terms of Israeli reprisals has clearly stated the obvious — the supposed punishment has proverbially been far in excess of the crime.

Besides, Israeli-Palestine ties must be examined within the time frame of a few decades. In recent years, the Hamas-ruled enclave, Gaza, has been forced to practically become the world’s largest prison. The almost full-time Israeli control over that region has effectively forced many Palestinians to resign themselves to either life in captivity or a journey towards freedom after inevitable bloodshed.

Consequently, left in a life without any hope for a more promising future, it is hardly surprising that a visible majority of younger Palestinian men and women have chosen to rise irrespective of the consequences. Recent TV images from Gaza have repeatedly shown well-reported images of Palestinians refusing to vacate their neighbourhoods despite the area being intensely bombed by Israel.

More broadly across the Middle East and the Islamic world, there is a palpable pushback from public opinion against the US-led support to Israel. That leaders such as US President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and French President Emanuel Macron travelled to Tel Aviv as Palestinians were being bombed but subsequently failed to stop the carnage in Gaza, clearly represents one of the worst examples of double standards. In effect, those leaders were clearly part of a Western tilt towards Israel which is set to undermine global interests in the Islamic world as years go by.

The future will not be decided by the US supply of billions of dollars worth of offensive military equipment to Israel or Washington’s deployment of two aircraft carrier groups equipped with a mighty war machine, supposedly to protect Israel. Instead, the future will be decided on the streets of the world including the Western world where scores of protesters joined hands in recent days to condemn the carnage in Gaza.

Meanwhile, recent history is littered with scores of examples of the use of excessive military might that led to few discernible benefits. The US-led invasion of Afghanistan for almost two decades cost Washington a staggering $2.2 trillion, making it the most expensive war in human history. Yet, America’s quick abandonment of Afghanistan in 2021 quickly followed by the return of the Taliban, immediately exposed the US failure to change the course of its conquered country.

Other examples of a futile outcome following similar military occupations were witnessed in Iraq and to a lesser extent in Libya. And the world could have been a far better place without Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its fallout for global politics and the economy.

Going forward, policymakers across the world – Western and non-Western alike will have to recognize two equally important lessons. On the one hand, the carnage unleashed over Gaza today will continue to haunt the world for years to come, through hard-to-predict consequences. But there will indeed be consequences.

On the other hand, there will inevitably be a fallout for the global economy through equally hard-to-predict consequences. That could range from turmoil in global markets to oil prices getting pumped up, all in an increasingly uncertain world.

While such consequences rage, one hard reality will not change. Hamas – the target of Israel’s unleashed carnage – is set to survive what has already become the world’s worst bloodshed in recent memory.

History has taught multiple lessons worth remembering. One such lesson is the ability of nationalist groups to survive harsh adversities. It was a lesson that became abundantly clear as the US war in Vietnam raged from the 1960s onwards. The former Soviet Union had to learn that bitter lesson too from 1979 onwards during its decade-long and eventually failed occupation of Afghanistan. And that lesson yet again came to haunt the US during its subsequent occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan. Hamas is set to survive the war in Gaza, in times to come.

The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist who writes on political and economic affairs. He can be reached at: farhanbokhari@gmail.com