Lucky Nawaz?

Lady luck – or her more powerful alternative in Pakistan – certainly seems to be smiling on Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif. Some would say the ‘luck’ is due given the rather unceremonious way his previous term in office ended. For others, such optimism, however, fails to see the elephant in the room that is screaming out about the ‘special’ nature of Nawaz Sharif’s return. From absconder to hero in ninety seconds may be a bit much for most people to digest. Essentially, on Thursday the legal hurdles to Nawaz coming back and not being arrested were removed by the IHC granting him protective bail in the Al-Azizia and Avenfield cases while his arrest warrant in the Toshakhana case had also been suspended by an accountability court earlier on. The IHC has given the PML-N leader protective bail till October 24, meaning Nawaz cannot be arrested till at least October 24. All this works out quite well for our former prime minister who is all set to return to Pakistan on Saturday, October 21.

Nawaz had been sentenced by an accountability court in the Avenfield and Al-Azizia Steel Mills references in 2018. The sentence was challenged in the high court which had suspended the accountability court’s sentence. While appeal proceedings were underway, Nawaz had travelled abroad for medical treatment. He never returned, and was declared a proclaimed offender by the IHC. Since Nawaz will now be able to address the planned rally in Lahore on October 21, there is renewed talk by other parties, including the PPP, of how there has been a push for a ‘level-playing field’ that is not quite level but may be skewed towards the PML-N. Already, the bails granted to Nawaz have not gone unnoticed, PTI supporters alleging these are a special favour. In debate now is politics after Nawaz returns. What will be ‘Mian Sahib’s’ narrative? How does he intend to woo the voter, given the aftermath of the PDM government? Is he going to go the Shehbaz way or channel his last iteration as a more ideological leader not wary of exposing uncomfortable political realities?

Going by some experts, the Nawaz that returns to Lahore on October 21 is not the Nawaz that had left for medical treatment. The time then was different. Imran Khan was in power, heading a vengeful government; the PDM and other parties were persecuted by NAB; and both economy and foreign policy under Imran were not stellar. Fast forward to today and the situation is completely different: Imran Khan is in jail; his party leaders are either on the run, arrested, or have jumped ship; and the PDM government made such a mess of the economy that the PTI government starts looking better. Amidst this, what promise can Nawaz offer to the people of Pakistan? A better economy? But then what was the Dar-led fiasco we just went through? Granted the economy the PDM inherited was full of potholes and minefields laid down by the PTI, but that is now neither here nor there as an excuse. The only other thing Nawaz can offer is a throwback to the pre-PDM days of resistance. The Nawaz Sharif of the PDM jalsas was an angry Nawaz Sharif, and a more honest Nawaz Sharif. Perhaps the voter could be swayed by that Nawaz Sharif. But it is highly unlikely the voter will get to see that Nawaz again. The PML-N – at least the PML-N that has taken on the more pragmatic approach of Shehbaz Sharif – does not seem to be in the mood for some honest conversations. Things are finally going their way – why, they may feel, should they resist any luck and charm that falls to them now? However, there are also other rumours in play, which dispel the notion of the PML-N forming a majority government. For months and months, we have been hearing talk about the apparently beloved-by-the-powers ‘national government’ – a government in which all mainstream parties get a share. Some may see the reported meetings caretaker Information Minister Murtaza Solangi held with leaders of the PPP and PML-N in that light. For the PML-N, all bets are on Mian Nawaz Sharif saving it from voters’ wrath or apathy both. Tall order.