Is TTP’s ‘jihadi’ narrative challenged by Afghan Taliban?

The Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has been waging terrorist attacks within Pakistan while operating from sanctuaries in neighbouring Afghanistan.

However, the group now seems to be facing increased pressure as the reigning Afghan Taliban regime has disavowed the TTP’s justification for “jihad” against the Pakistani state. Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid, the Afghan Taliban’s Defence Minister, clearly stated that “if someone goes outside of Afghanistan with the intention of Jihad, his work is not called jihad”.

This directly contradicts the TTP’s self-proclaimed jihadist agenda against Pakistan. TTP released its own statement claiming that their “first priority is the stability of the Afghan Taliban’s government”.

However, the very need for the TTP to clarify its stance vis-a-vis the Afghan Taliban regime suggests that the group is facing difficulties due to international and regional pressure on Afghanistan over the TTP’s activities in Pakistan from Afghan soil.

Recent UN reports paint a different picture, stating that the TTP is gaining strength inside Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover in 2021. The Afghan Taliban government has consistently denied the TTP’s presence within its borders, but the UN warns that if allowed a safe haven, the TTP could become a regional threat alongside other terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM).

While the Afghan Taliban and the TTP may still cooperate informally, the public disavowal signals cracks in what was once considered an alliance of convenience. The TTP now finds itself in a difficult spot - it cannot ignore the Afghan Taliban’s disapproval of its jihad in Pakistan but also risks losing relevance if it abandons violence.

The implications of the Afghan Taliban’s disavowal of the TTP’s jihadist narrative include challenging the TTP’s primary justification for its terrorist activities inside Pakistan. It also increases pressure on the TTP and creates uncertainty over its future course of action. It is also weakening the relationship between the two groups, denying TTP safe haven and tacit support from Afghanistan, isolating the TTP regionally and internationally.

Above all, it will boost counterterrorism cooperation between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban against the TTP, encouraging infighting and fragmentation within the ranks of a pressurised TTP which is struggling with internal rifts, and potentially weakening TTP’s organisational cohesion and capacity for large-scale terrorist attacks inside Pakistan.

What is obvious so far is despite their denial of safe havens for the TTP, the Afghan Taliban have served the TTP’s interests in various ways:

The TTP militants represent a faction of Pakistani jihadis who have fought for the rise, expansion and defence of the Taliban in Afghanistan since the early 1990s. The TTP maintains covert links with Al-Qaeda and considers Afghan Taliban leaders as their own, finding refuge under Taliban rule in Afghanistan.

Since November 2022, when the TTP unilaterally ended a ceasefire with the Pakistani government after failed talks hosted by the Taliban rulers in Kabul, they have intensified attacks on Pakistani soldiers and police. Operating from their base in North Waziristan, the TTP draws inspiration from the Afghan Taliban’s ascent to power.

With the Taliban controlling Afghanistan and showing sympathy towards the TTP, the TTP now enjoys an unprecedented level of strategic depth. They have relocated fighters from Afghanistan to Pakistan, expanding their operations and geographical reach.

The TTP portrays Taliban rule in Afghanistan as a solution to Pakistan’s political and economic crises, claiming that Afghan citizens experience greater peace and better governance than their Pakistani counterparts. This ideological alignment strengthens the TTP’s narrative and justifications for their violent activities.

Despite the Afghan Taliban’s denial of their presence, the TTP still benefits from safe havens and sanctuary in Afghanistan. The alliance between the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban remains strong, with signs of integration across the Durand Line.

However, it remains to be seen if the TTP will heed the Afghan Taliban’s latest directives and wind down its cross-border terrorist operations. Much will depend on how strictly the Taliban enforce this ban on jihad outside Afghanistan and deny the TTP further sanctuary and support.

While the TTP and Afghan Taliban’s relationship may not have completely ruptured, the apparent banning of cross-border militancy indicates cracks are emerging in their partnership due to international pressures. Sustained efforts are needed regionally and globally to disrupt the terrorist nexus in Afghanistan which challenges the peace and stability of the region.

Jan Achakzai is a geopolitical analyst, a Balochistan politician and a former media and strategic communications advisor to GOB. He tweets @jan_Achakzai