ISLAMABAD: The risk of default on external debt repayments will emerge within the first six months (July-Dec), as Pakistan will have to repay $10.35 billion in foreign debt servicing till end of December 2023.
In order to avert a balance of payment crisis, including repayment of external debt and obligations, Pakistan requires injections of $4 to $6 billion immediately in case there is no revival of the IMF programme by end of June 2023.
The details available with The News revealed the country would have to repay $3.79 billion as principal and interest repayments in the first quarter (July-September) of next fiscal year starting from July 1, 2023.
Islamabad’s external debt servicing obligations will rise to $6.568 billion in the second quarter (Oct-Dec) of fiscal year 2023-24.
In the second quarter (Oct-Dec) period, Pakistan requires repayment of $1.219 billion as Eurobond repayment, including a principal amount of $1 billion and interest payment of $219 million.
When contacted, a senior official of the Ministry of Finance said out of over $10.3 billion, there would be a rollover of deposits to the tune of $4 billion including $1 billion from China in July 2023 and remaining $3 billion from Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the second quarter (Oct-Dec) period. It is hoped Islamabad would get rollover of $4 billion deposits from these friendly countries.
However, there would be repayment of $6 billion remaining loan requirements which Islamabad would have to manage amid dwindling foreign exchange reserves.
Details of foreign loan repayments shows Pakistan would have to repay to China under guaranteed debt to the tune of $363 million, including principal loan amount of $280 million and interest payment of $83 million in the first quarter of the next financial year.
Pakistan owed to repay total bilateral debt to the tune of $1.05 billion in the first quarter (July-Sept) of next financial year out of which Islamabad would repay $15 million to France, $24.67 million to Japan, $0.6 million to Korea, $591 million to China, $6.5 million to Kuwait and $2.29 million to the UAE.
Pakistan will have to repay to Saudi Arabia to the tune of $398.08 million in shape of foreign loan repayment in the first quarter of next fiscal year starting from July 1, 2023.
Ironically, Pakistan will be bound to pay commitment charges as penalty to international creditors to the tune of $12 million.
On account of Eurobond, Pakistan will repay $72 million as interest payment in the first quarter of next fiscal year. There will be repayment of $84 million on account of commercial loan repayment in shape of interest payment in the first quarter of next fiscal year.
Within the first three months of next fiscal year, Pakistan will repay to China $1.096 billion in shape of SAFE deposit, including $1 billion as principal amount and $96 million as interest repayment. This $1 billion SAFE deposit will be due in July 2023 with expectations China would grant rollover on this SAFE deposit amount. On Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s deposit, Pakistan will have to repay $30 million as interest repayment in the first quarter of next fiscal year.
Pakistan will have to repay loan amount of $235 million to the IMF in the first quarter of next fiscal year, including $165.02 million as principal amount and $69.97 million as interest repayment. For Naya Pakistan Certificates, the government will repay principal and interest repayment of $93 million in the first three months of next fiscal year.
Pakistan will have to repay multilateral creditors to the tune of $660.58 million in the first quarter of next fiscal year, including $298 million to ADB, $9.23 million to AIIB, $9 million to unspent balance, $227.67 million WB’s IDA loan, $90.5 million from WB’s IBRD and $22.31 million from IDB.
For short-term IDB loan, Pakistan will repay $107.57 million in the first quarter of current fiscal year.
Total grand foreign loan repayments stood at $3.79 billion in the first quarter (July-Sept) of next fiscal year, including principal amount of $2.99 billion and interest payment of $801.6 million.
In the second quarter (Oct-Dec) period of fiscal year 2023-24, the official data shows Pakistan would have to repay Chinese commercial bank to the tune of $33.38 million during October to December period.
Total bilateral debt repayments will be standing at $1.009 billion to different friendly countries.
There will be commercial debt repayments of $33 million in the second quarter of next fiscal year. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) deposit repayment will become due to the tune of $3.03 billion, including $3 billion deposits as principal amount and $30 million as interest repayment. There are expectations KSA will grant rollover of $3 billion deposits.
There will be repayment of $228 million to IMF in the second quarter of next fiscal year. The Naya Pakistan Certificates repayment will be standing at $80 million.
Total foreign loan repayments to the multilateral creditors will be standing at $730.29 million in the second quarter of next fiscal year. The short-term loan of IDB repayment will stand at $64.2 million.
Total external debt repayments will be standing at $6.568 billion in the second quarter of next fiscal, posing serious risk to economy on external debt repayments, while foreign exchange reserves stand at around $4 billion at the moment.
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