Alliance in trouble?

There has been some gleeful conversation around what is being seen as trouble in the PDM-and-co paradise. Is the honeymoon period over between the PML-N and the PPP? Recent jibes and volley of statements do suggest that political claws might be being sharpened ahead of what seems to be an election that is near. First, we saw second and third tier PML-N leaders complaining about election rigging by the PPP. That would have been jotted down as folks being more loyal then the king (or queen). But then we had the Swat rally by the PPP just a few days back where the PPP chairman – and also foreign minister of the country – Bilawal Bhutto Zardari complained to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif about not being able to fulfil his promises in the budget – specifically money for flood victims in Sindh. Reports say PM Shehbaz has approved Rs25 billion after Bhutto’s threat of refusal to approve the 2023-2024 budget.

While it may be tempting to jump at this as a sign that all is not well in the PDM alliance, one would have to press pause on that. This is not wholly unexpected. The PPP may be part of the PDM government but it never joined the PDM alliance again. One would have to look at the unfolding politics from a purely electoral angle. After the May 9 riots, the political situation in the country has taken a different turn for many reasons, the foremost of them being the uncertain future of the PTI. Political observers say that since chances are high that Imran Khan will not be forgiven for what took place that day, it has resulted in other political parties to take ‘advantage’ of the changing political scenario. From the launch of a new political party to PTI deserters joining the PPP and even the PML-Q, the situation in Punjab is becoming quite interesting. Some observers say that with the PTI out of the way, the PML-N will benefit in Punjab while others say that the unpopularity of the PML-N due to the dire economic situation will give an edge to its opposition parties. And in the ‘absence’ of PTI candidates, some observers say that the ‘opposition’ to the PML-N in Punjab will most likely be its current allies – PPP, PML-Q, Jahangir Tareen’s new party, IPP.

These then are the compulsions and political strategic decisions that will be driving politics onwards: each party looking at alliances from a purely strategic sense. Last year after the vote of no-confidence and the formation of the PDM government, political experts had predicted that since the PPP has taken all the ‘good’ ministries and would be able to perform in them, the PML-N will get all the flak because it had the most important ministries – interior, law, and most important of all, finance. This is not a bad political strategy and it is not as if the PML-N was not aware of it – the Sharifs had the most to gain and the most to lose after the PDM government came to power. In the very mathematical and practical decision-making that accompanies electoral strategy, it is also important to remember that every party within the PDM as well as the PP is also an entity unto itself. That includes the PML-N. Politics includes disagreement, playing your cards close to your chest and ensuring you win. Where it goes wrong is when a party starts taking politics as personal enmity. Which is why, as PML-N and PPP, sharpen their political skills for elections, they would do well to remember that they need to stay away from what the PTI had done – unleashing malicious attacks against other parties and treating them like personal enemies instead of political rivals. Given that the PML-N and PPP signed the Charter of Democracy more than a decade ago, there is a maturity in the way they have opposed each other since then. In this, Bilawal Bhutto’s statement regarding the CoD bodes well. As long as they let each other work and don’t resort to the sort of abuse we have seen with the PTI kind of politics, the political realm will survive basic rivalries regarding policy.