Rebuilding ties

In February 2022, former prime minister Imran Khan visited Russia. One year on, Pakistan and Russia are still working towards a robust bilateral diplomacy. This shift in the relationship between the two countries is indeed unexpected, especially after the end of the Bhutto regime – a golden period of cooperation for both countries.

Many good things happened in the 1970s in Pakistan with support from Russia. Then the country fell a victim to Ziaul Haq’s martial law and sided with America’s intervention in Afghanistan. The Afghan jihad and the cold war ended with the disintegration of the USSR. With this, Russia’s dreams of heading towards warm-water ports for trade shattered.

It is rather unfortunate that Pakistan did not realize how its ill-thought-out actions would affect its relationship with other countries. Years later, it played well in engaging the Afghan Taliban in negotiations with the US on its withdrawal from Afghanistan. Without deciding on any post-withdrawal strategy, the region was left to the mercy of the Afghan Taliban, which posed security threats for Pakistan.

Despite huge sacrifices over four decades, Pakistan has been left on its own. Not only do the Afghan Taliban treat Pakistan differently post-withdrawal, but the Biden administration has also stopped showing any interest in the country. Both hold Pakistan responsible for every wrong in Afghanistan for one reason or the other – a bitter end of a toxic romance. Though Pakistan facilitated several rounds of the Taliban’s negotiations with the US for the peaceful handing over of Afghanistan to its people, Pakistan could not win the confidence of major Afghan stakeholders.

On the financial front, the IMF too has worsened its conditions for Pakistan in the last couple of years, and Pakistan is increasingly being pushed towards a default. Pakistan has to face constant humiliation for $1 billion.

China’s consistent belief in Pakistan, especially in the last one decade, has been quite helpful and hopeful. China has undoubtedly played a central role in narrowing the distance between Russia and Pakistan at a time when the IMF, Washington and Nato allies were arm-twisting Pakistan. A blessing in disguise, I believe.

Despite all odds, the first Russian oil cargo is expected to touch Pakistan’s ports soon. The efforts will certainly open up new vistas for future cooperation. The Russia-Pakistan energy corridor is expected to enhance its mandate to greater bilateral cooperation. Perhaps, this is the best time to revive the glorious past of economic cooperation and infrastructure development. Seventy-five years are too long to behave sufficiently mature in carving out win-win conditions.

Pakistan is starved for money, energy and trade in an era of historic unstable political environment that has caused an immense dent to its economy, stock exchange and exports. Russia is facing another big blow of conflict with Ukraine where the latter is being supported by the US-led Nato. Russia’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine has cost it a huge chunk of funds and human resources. But it is still relatively stable, while Ukraine has gone bankrupt. Ukraine’s economic meltdown has already caused grain shortage in the least developed countries, even Europe has seen the impact too.

While about $161 billion US-West military aid to Ukraine in 2022-23 has turned the country dependent on the US, this US-West military and strategic support has allowed Ukraine to become a big threat to the Russia-China economic designs for the greater Asia region. The emerging situation will certainly increase risks for Chinese investment in CPEC and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), besides hampering the Russia-China geopolitical and economic interests. So, Pakistan has to be careful in the coming days in balancing its ties with the West and with its neighbours.

Having hosted large meetings on diverse subjects, Pakistan needs to have a comprehensive and long-term plan for Russian cooperation. The Central Asian Republics, the former states of the USSR, and today’s Russian Federation can play a significant role in strengthening Pakistan’s security, economy and energy challenge. Bilateral ties should go beyond rhetoric and statements. Both countries need some bold steps to improve strategic ties as well against the new cold war strategies and Nato’s expansion plans.

Isn’t it better for Pakistan if it extends its military support to Russia while trying to improve its bilateral trade? It can do so through China or any friendly country. However, Pakistan is reluctantly going with the flow when it should be more willing to join any arrangement which strengthens regional connectivity, peace and cooperation. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) can play a central role in harnessing Pakistan’s potential in the region.

Afghanistan and Taliban could be a challenge for regional cooperation, especially with regard to Pakistan’s cooperation with Russia. Nevertheless, Pakistan must continue with its confidence building measures to engage the Taliban government in Afghanistan and mitigate the TTP threat in Pakistan. In the emerging scenarios, there are possibilities of the US returning to Afghanistan if Ukraine miserably fails to curtail Russia’s reach out to the Black Sea.

Around $161 billion in military aid to Ukraine seems to have gone ineffective while it is strategically important for the US to keep a check on both Russia and China. India too has been ineffective in expediting the cold war in the region, certainly for its economic interests with China and its ever-increasing lobby of friends.

Pakistan has to act more wisely in the emerging situation though traditionally it has been close to the US-Nato bloc. Now, the vacuum the US has created could become an opportunity for Pakistan to have better ties with Russia and China. Both have played for Pakistan quite well in the absence of the US support.

This is the best time to claim impartiality and balance of bilateral ties while efficiently watching its economic interests and cooperation. Today’s economic convergences might help unite the Eurasian supercontinent for the benefit of all regional countries. The new great game shall not hamper the region again.

The writer is a freelance journalist and broadcaster, and director of

Devcom-Pakistan. He can be reached at devcom.pakistan@gmail.com and tweets @EmmayeSyed