SWOT appraisal of Shehbaz Sharif government

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government is facing several critical challenges that threaten its stability and effectiveness. These challenges can be categorised into five main fault lines.

Firstly, Pakistan’s economy is in a state of flux. The country is grappling with high inflation, a widening trade deficit and a depreciating currency and reserves. These economic challenges are putting immense pressure on the government to deliver tangible results.

Secondly, Pakistan has a history of political instability. The country has been ruled by several different governments in recent years, and there is a growing sense of uncertainty about the future. However, the PTI going through the last throes of liquidation will reduce instability. But, the President Office will continue to be the potential force of instability during the life of this government as per many observers.

This instability is further compounded by the threat of terrorism, which continues to pose a significant challenge to the government.

Thirdly, Pakistan is a poor country, with over 60pc of the population living below the poverty line. This poverty is a major impediment to the government’s efforts to improve the economy and provide relief to the poor.

Fourthly, Pakistan ranks 140 out of 180 countries in terms of corruption, according to Transparency International. This corruption is a significant obstacle to the government’s efforts to fight poverty and improve the economy. But, ironically the government cannot fight corruption for being selective.

Lastly, the government is facing several weaknesses that threaten its effectiveness. These include a poor relevant team dealing with business and investment, red tape and FDI.

2: Strengths: Despite these challenges, the Shehbaz Sharif’s government has several strengths that it can leverage to overcome these obstacles.

Firstly, the government has an overall strong team, mainly comprising PMLN members, dealing with energy, finance and important ministries like interior and defence.

Secondly, the government has an experienced chief executive in Shehbaz Sharif, who has served as chief minister of Punjab for three terms and has transferred his governance skills.

Lastly, the government has a clear agenda, with Shehbaz Sharif pledging to improve the economy, fight corruption and provide relief to the poor.

3: Opportunities: The government has a unique opportunity to improve the economy by adopting corporate goals that focus on removing red tape and implementing a one-window operation. This will attract foreign investment, increase exports and reduce imports. The government can also provide the right skilled people (not sifarishis) for the Board of Investment to connect investors with government departments. By doing so, the government can create a business-friendly environment that will help boost the economy.

The government also has an opportunity to fight corruption. However, due to the coalition government, it has limited capacity. It needs to take strong measures to prosecute corrupt officials and recover stolen assets.

Furthermore, the government can provide relief to the poor by increasing social spending and encouraging business-to-business entrepreneurship. This will create jobs and help reduce poverty.

4: Threats: The government is facing a risk of default and the threat will linger on into the next fiscal year till the government convinces the market and investors that it has sorted it’s house in order and succeeded to find alternate sources of raising foreign exchange.

Secondly, the government is facing a significant threat from terrorism. It needs to work closely with the military and intelligence agencies to disrupt terrorist networks and ensure safety of its citizens.

Thirdly, the government is also facing a challenge from poverty. It needs to invest in education, healthcare and infrastructure to reduce poverty and improve the standard of living for its citizens.

Lastly, the government is facing a challenge from corruption. It needs to take strong measures to fight corruption and ensure that corrupt officials are held accountable for their actions.

In a nutshell, the Shehbaz government faces several challenges, but it also has several opportunities to make a positive impact. The government must prioritise improving the economy, combating corruption and providing aid to the impoverished. By doing so, the government can significantly improve the lives of Pakistani people.

5: Suggestions: However, with only two-and-a-half months left in office, it is crucial for this experienced admin to introduce these reforms promptly, so that the caretaker government can continue to implement them effectively.

In the meantime, the government should utilise the strengths of Establishment in terms of credibility, trustworthiness and capacity for execution to attract FDI and facilitate investors, if needed. With the IMF out of the window, Pakistan has to reform its business model i.e. moving to raise capital from FDI and sovereign funds as a viable alternative to loans. There are already precedents like FATF and Reko Diq involving Establishment’s contribution.

In addition, the power that be can be called upon to utilise its resources to counteract bureaucratic obstacles and the influence of powerful mafia entities in major corporate deals, (both at GtoG and BtoB levels), besides, anti-corporate and business nasty stay culture. It is a race against time to introduce drastic reforms for a reset of the governance model in Pakistan.

Jan Achakzai is a geopolitical analyst, a Balochistan politician and a former media and strategic communications advisor to GOB. He tweets @jan_Achakzai