‘Unexpected’ census results to stoke further controversy

ISLAMABAD: Some initial results of the ongoing first-ever digital population census 2023 have witnessed serious “abnormal results” especially in Balochistan and Sindh provinces. While an unusual growth in population has been found in some areas, there is a drop in population growth in certain other areas.

In order to rectify the complaints raised by the different political parties especially from MQM Pakistan in the case of Karachi, the government has convened an important briefing session at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) here in Islamabad on Friday afternoon and invited 28 political leaders mainly from its political allies of PDM and four chief ministers to rectify some concerns of the stakeholders. However, no invitation has been extended to PTI leaders.

In Balochistan, the population growth witnessed a surge of 7.8 percent and initial assessment showed that there were certain divisions such as Panjgur, Makran, Rakshan, and others where the population growth witnessed higher than normal growth. In case of the major urban center of Karachi, it has witnessed population growth of just 0.4 percent while in rural Sindh there is a phenomenal growth of close to 9 percent. Similrly, the initial results suggest that the population of Karachi and Lahore stood close to each other in the range of around 16 million.

The official sources in PBS told The News that they came to know about abnormal results in certain divisions of Balochistan when the house listing exercise was underway. Then the Provincial Census Commissioner of Balochistan along with the administration of the respective areas tried to remedy the situation but now it was under consideration to verify the authenticity of results through imagery of satellites of SUPRARCO, NADRA data, and other sources of information before dispatching results to the Council of Common Interests. The official sources said that the government has constituted a special committee of demographic experts under Chairperson Dr Zeba Sathar affiliated with the Population Council and other experts including Dr. Durre-e-Nayab from the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics and others. The demographers have recommended the Monitoring Committee of Population Census to further extend the deadline for 10 days up to May 10, 2023, for rectifying the troubled areas in the provinces.

The initial census results also demonstrate that the fiscal shares of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) were bound to decline under the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award while the share of Sindh and Balochistan was expected to go up. It is relevant to mention here that the population criteria possesses 90 percent weightage for the resource distribution formula within the provinces while criteria of poverty, backwardness, and area, and other criteria possessed a weightage of 10 percent only.

The experts also suggested to the government time and again that there was a need to implement the Indian model whereby the resource distribution formula among the states did not have any link with the results of the population census. It should be de-linked in the case of Pakistan as well in order to ensure transparent and fair results, they added.