Situationer: Anti-Western global order seeks to exclude US from ME

ISLAMABAD: The China-brokered agreement between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia announced last month generated a huge buzz, with some observers going as far as proclaiming it a victory for international security, international media reported.

For Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the deal is about far more than normalising ties with the Saudi government in Riyadh. Instead, it is about further facilitating, along with China and Russia, the rise of a new anti-Western global order and excluding the United States from a new regional arrangement, the Foreign Policy magazine said in its analysis.

Saudi Arabia this week moved closer to joining a China-led Asian security and economic bloc, having been granted the status of a dialogue partner in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as it expands its global outreach.

China’s growing role in the Middle East of late has alarmed Washington. The Beijing mediated landmark agreement between arch foes Iran and Saudi Arabia can help significantly ease Middle East tensions. Saudi Arabia also significantly strengthened its energy ties with China by announcing on Monday a $3.6 billion deal to buy 10 percent of China’s Rongsheng Petrochemical, which would see it supply 480,000 barrels per day of crude oil to the company, CNN reported.Analysts say that as the US rivalry with China and Russia intensifies in an increasingly polarised world, Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern nations are choosing to diversify their global partnerships. But while states like Saudi Arabia may be getting closer to China, Beijing is far from becoming a US rival in the region, they say.

“The traditional monogamous relationship with the US is now over,” said Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst and writer. “And we have gone into a more open relationship; strong with the US but equally strong with China, India, (the) UK, France and others.”

That polarisation is the reason different parties “bring different forms of influence to the table,” he told CNN. “The smart thing for the kingdom is to put in place a portfolio of strategic relations that all contribute to its security and prosperity in different ways.”

Jonathan Fulton, senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, says that China has a strict non-alliance policy and is unlikely to want to get bogged down in Middle Eastern conflicts.“An ally is typically someone you’re aligned with against a third country or a bloc of third countries… and China doesn’t want to do that,” he told CNN. “They don’t want to get caught up in other countries’ issues, especially in the Middle East.”After the surprise Saudi-Iran agreement was announced this month, the Biden administration appeared to downplay China’s role. White House Spokesman John Kirby said internal and external pressure, including effective Saudi deterrence against attacks from Iran or its proxies, ultimately brought Iran to the table. But he welcomed it “regardless of what the impetus was, or who sat down at the table.”

Fulton said China’s mediation isn’t necessarily a change in its Middle East policy. It was a “regional approach to a regional problem,” he said, which regional actors saw the US unable to resolve.“Washington has been struggling to adapt to the new Saudi Arabia,” said Ayham Kamel, head of Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group. “This creates a whole new set of challenges as US allies have begun to create their distinct Iran policy that might not align with Washington’s own approach.”

“Washington has been struggling to adapt to the new Saudi Arabia,” said Ayham Kamel, head of Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group. “This creates a whole new set of challenges as US allies have begun to create their distinct Iran policy that might not align with Washington’s own approach.”

The kingdom has been searching for a different approach toward Iran, “to minimise security threats that would inevitably threaten Saudi Vision 2030,” said Anna Jacobs, a senior Gulf analyst at the International Crisis Group. Instead of trying to isolate Iran, Saudi Arabia is now “looking to counter, contain and engage Iran,” she said.

“Many experts still assume that whoever is in the White House will guide Saudi policy on Iran,” Ms Jacobs said, “but that simply isn’t true today.”“Saudi Arabia and Gulf Arab states are focusing on their economic, political and security interests and protecting themselves from regional threats,” including the potential for escalating tensions between Iran and Israel,” she added.

The agreement to re-establish relations could still be jeopardized or slowed by a number of thorny issues, analysts say. “This deal is a major step forward, but the hardest work is yet to come,” Ms Jacobs said.

For Saudi Arabia, the move is the latest step toward rebalancing its major power relations that have been traditionally dominated by its ties with the United States.”The Kingdom is pursuing a portfolio strategy of developing a number of strategic partners to complement its relations with the West,” Ali al-Shihabi, a Saudi political expert who formerly led the Arabia Foundation think tank and now serves on the advisory board of the futuristic NEOM city project, told Newsweek.

“China and the multilateral organisations it has established are an important part of that, not only in strengthening the ties with China but by allowing Saudi to benefit from China’s relations with others like Iran.”

Meanwhile, the US has placed itself on the sidelines.

“Saudi’s diversification strategy attempts to fill in the gaps left by the US’ loss of interest or will in maintaining the status quo in the region,” Shihabi said.