Merkel risks bruising in crunch German votes

BERLIN: Isolated in Europe, Chancellor Angela Merkel faces a big test at home on Sunday when three German states vote in elections that risk eroding her base and undermining the migrant policy on which she has staked her legacy.

Merkel, known for her caution, took the high-risk step last summer of opening Germany’s borders to refugees fleeing war in Syria - a move that made her Time magazine’s Person of the Year but stoked angst among Germans about integrating the migrants.

Now voters in the three states - two in the west, and one in the former east - have a chance to punish Merkel, 61, just as she is trying to use her status as Europe’s most powerful leader to push through an EU deal with Turkey to stop the migrant flow. "Merkel will continue to be chancellor, but maybe with a black eye," said Matthias Kortmann at the University of Munich.

Such a loss of face would erode Merkel’s standing at a crucial juncture in her efforts to deal with the refugee crisis that saw over 1 million migrants arrive in Germany last year. She alarmed many European leaders at a summit earlier this week by gambling on a last-minute draft deal with Turkey to stop the migrant flow and demanding their support. But Merkel, whose gravitas and reputation for deal-making has grown during her 10 years in power, must still seal the Turkey deal with EU leaders at their next summit on March 17-18.

"If she cannot push through her approach then, she will not be able to avoid correcting her stance on refugee policy," said Oskar Niedermayer at Berlin’s Free University.

Such a shift, which could include tightening Germany’s borders, would be damaging to Merkel, who is expected to seek a fourth term in office at a federal election in 2017.Snapping at the heels of her conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) is the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, whose hardline stance on refugees could bring it big gains in all three states voting on Sunday.

Founded only in 2013, the AfD has morphed from an anti-euro zone bailout party into an anti-immigrant electoral force, to which the CDU is bleeding support in all three states.

The three regions - Baden-Wuerttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate in the west, and Saxony-Anhalt in the east - have a combined population of some 17 million, a fifth of Germany’s 81 million.