House of Sharif divided?

Amidst the political turmoil in Punjab, the PMLN is facing waves of criticism and backlash for its perceived lack of direction in the recently successful confidence move of outgoing Chief Minister Pervaiz Illahi.

The PMLN is now under immense pressure to provide a clear direction and strategy for the upcoming elections. As such, the PMLN Chief Organiser, Maryam Nawaz, has been given the responsibility of preparing for the upcoming elections. Recently, Maryam visited Geneva and is expected to return in the third week of January. Her son, Junaid Safdar, has also arrived in Pakistan, signaling that the electoral market is heating up and the PMLN is doing its utmost to win power.

It is important to understand the split between the two houses of the Sharif family and how it will affect the outcome of the elections. Observers of the N-League have identified two factions: the Maryam group and the Shehbaz/Hamza group. After the PDM government, the two groups have become more clearly defined. Before coming to power, the division was not as apparent.

Earlier, when the PMLN came to power, Nawaz Sharif was made Prime Minister and Shehbaz Sharif Chief Minister of Punjab. Fast forward, new arrangement was made with the Sharif family as Nawaz Sharif was not willing to return and SS was made PM with the Nawaz group out of SS govt.

Maryam represents the Nawaz group in Pakistan and was the first to get her passport back and rushed to London, as her group had no government and no work to do. Earlier, she was tasked with contesting the Punjab by-elections which she failed to win. Maryam told the media she had to go to London for a month for a small surgery that could only be done there. This is the fourth month and she has yet to return.

Now PM Shehbaz Sharif, who is President of the PMLN, has promoted Maryam Nawaz from Vice President to become the party’s Senior Vice President and Chief Organiser. This is a position that was previously held by Shahid Khakan Abbasi. Maryam is now tasked with reorganising the party in order to ensure the PMLN’s success in the upcoming elections.

The fate of Maryam Nawaz, the leader of the London Group, remains uncertain. Will she remain in London or return to Pakistan to take up a position of power? This is yet to be seen. All members of the London Group in Pakistan have been kept away from the government, and those considered loyal to Shehbaz Sharif have been appointed to government positions. Malik Ahmad Khan, Ataullah Tarar and other PMLN Pakistan members have been given ministerial positions.

On the other hand, Pervez Rashid, who is considered a close ally of the London Group, has been kept away from government office. Talal Chaudhry, another member of the London Group, has been confined to Faisalabad. He had a constituency in the 2018 elections, but was defeated by Nawab Sher Wasir from Jaranwala. Sher Wasir, who had been a PPP member all his life, switched to the PTI three months before the elections and won. Talal was subsequently disqualified for five years. Talal is now desperately trying to save his ticket by travelling between Faisalabad, Lahore and London.

Mian Javed Latif, who faced jail, also known as the N-League London leader, has claimed that Nawaz Sharif is returning and that he is competing with Sheikh Rashid in announcing dates. Although he was given an official position, he was not given a portfolio. He has been waiting for a department for eight months.

Meanwhile, former Senator Nihal Hashmi from Karachi and former Governor Sindh Zubair Omar, a spokesman for Maryam and Nawaz Sharif, have been denied access to any government posts.

The London Group relies on the Pakistani Group, Shehbaz, for whatever relief or convenience they can offer. If the relief is successful, Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz will return to power. According to the perception of PMLN’s top party leadership, establishment, which Shehbaz Sharif is believed to be closely associated with, is the relief agency.

If the next elections are won, the pro-Maryam group will be granted the post of Prime Minister and the Shehbaz family will return to Punjab if Shehbaz Sharif becomes the Chief Minister or appoints Hamza as CM. This is based on past arrangement within the Sharif family.

However, it is likely that the “relief” is merely a ploy to keep the London Group waiting. When establishment put weight behind him, Shehbaz Sharif will be the prime minister hopeful. This means the PMLN London will have to wait a bit longer.

There is a possibility the distribution agreement can be reversed and reinforced. For example, if the PMLN wins the elections, the Shehbaz Group will take the Centre and the London Group will take Punjab. Maryam herself could become the chief minister for the next five years, as this was the first major post her father held in practical politics. Alternatively, Maryam could run Punjab through a proxy and pull the strings from behind the scenes.

The London Group’s future in Pakistani politics is uncertain. Will Maryam Nawaz return to take up a position? Will Talal Chaudhry be able to save his ticket? Will Mian Javed Latif be given a portfolio? Only time will tell.

Despite the unity of the House of Sharifs under Mian Sharif and subsequently Nawaz Sharif, it is uncertain whether Maryam will submit to Shehbaz after his fading out.

Hamza is seen as arrogant by many in the party, whereas Maryam is a popular figure and is likely to eventually take the helm of the party. Suleman Shehbaz is also believed to be promoted. He will likely be the finance minister if PMLN gets power or gets in coalition in the next elections.

Jan Achakzai is a geopolitical analyst, a Balochistan politician and a former media and strategic communications advisor to GOB. He tweets @jan_Achakzai