Who will win the narrative battle?

The battle for Punjab has entered a decisive phase. Not only did Chief Minister Punjab Parvez Elahi successfully win the vote of confidence from the Punjab Assembly but he also advised the Punjab governor to dissolve the provincial assembly.

According to the constitution, the Punjab Assembly stands dissolved from January 14 regardless of the Punjab governor’s notification. The PTI had already confirmed that the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly would dissolve too. This means that early elections are certain in at least two provinces.

The PML-N tried everything to avoid early elections in Punjab but failed. Now as per Article 224 of the constitution, a caretaker government will be installed within eight days following the dissolution of the assembly. And the province will soon be under a neutral caretaker setup; elections will be held in the next 90 days, which means before April 12.

The ruling alliance in Punjab led by Ch Parvez Elahi has delivered on its promise to dissolve the assembly. Many analysts were saying that the PTI would never dissolve the assemblies and it was just a political stunt. But the PTI has finally proven them wrong. Now it is up to the PML-N to either prepare for elections or hide behind technical reasons to delay them.

However, any attempts to delay elections will strengthen the already existing perception that the PML-N is running away from polls simply because it cannot win against the popularity of Imran Khan.

It is better for the PML-N to leave technical issues like holding elections in the middle of a census exercise to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and let the people of Punjab elect a new government which can steer the province from the current political, administrative and economic crisis and provide much-needed relief to ordinary people.

The PML-N should accept its defeat in round one. The party has suffered both legal and political setbacks in a province where it used to enjoy popularity. It is high time for the party to accept that things have not turned out the way it wanted. The economic crisis has intensified in the last nine months, since it came to power.

The PML-N-led coalition government has failed to control the soaring inflation. The worsening economic situation and inflation have dented its popularity, and it is now finding it hard to counter the popular narratives of Imran. Undoubtedly, the PTI has outsmarted the PML-N as far as the ability to develop and spread a narrative is concerned.

So far, the PTI is winning the war of narratives. The PML-N’s performance on this front is not satisfactory. Election campaigns are mainly a war of narratives. The better a party creates its narratives, the better chances it has to improve its image.

The PTI has won the first round of power politics in Punjab. Along with the PML-Q, it has destroyed the opposition parties, including the PML-N and the PPP. It has not only gained back the power it lost in Punjab after the ouster of its government but also thwarted all the efforts of the PML-N to gain power in Punjab.

Even though the PTI failed to force early elections in the country through street protests, it has finally achieved its target. The PTI has also exposed its street power and organizational strength at the grassroots level in the process. The party might not have the street power to oust the current coalition government but its electoral politics is powerful. It enjoys popular support among different sections of the population including the middle class and young voters. It also has a big number of electables in its fold.

The sudden surge of support for Imran after his ouster from power also helped the leadership to keep the parliamentary party intact. The PML-N and the PPP has failed to cause big defections in the PTI.

The results of the by-polls in Punjab in 2022 also proved to electables that the PTI’s ticket could help them win their constituencies. The PML-N failed to perform well in the by-polls as well and lost considerable support after taking power in Islamabad.

The PML-N used the most popular party in Punjab; it won five out of six by-polls held in Punjab in 2021. The party ticket was the most sought-after in Punjab. But its political fortunes changed in 2022 when the PTI became the most popular party. The PTI is confident about winning elections in Punjab and KP to form the provincial governments once again and thinks that its victories in Punjab and KP will help it in the next general elections.

It is going to be a close election. Both parties seem head-to-head in most constituencies. A fierce battle is likely to take place in Punjab. It will not be a walkover for any party. It will be a real test of popularity for both the PML-N and the PTI as the two parties have their strongholds in the province.

In 2018, the PTI swept the elections in north and south Punjab, and the PML-N had dominated central Punjab. The real challenge for the PTI is to maintain its strong grip in north and south Punjab and make inroads into central Punjab.

The PML-N has to recover the lost ground in north Punjab as it could manage to won only two out of the 27 seats in four districts of Rawalpindi division. The situation might be different this time.

I believe that the PTI is not as popular as it was in July 2022. It has lost some support in the last few months. In fact, both the PTI and the PML-N have lost considerable support in the province over the years. This election will determine whose popularity has gone down less.

The writer is a freelance journalist.