News analysis: Every which way but Elahi wins!

LAHORE: Punjab CM Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi is sailing trade winds in the Punjab Assembly since all legal moves are, seemingly, bringing him the ladyluck.

Amidst a lose-lose endgame in the wake of PTI Chairman Imran Khan’s quest for the dissolution of the Punjab and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) assemblies, the Punjab CM has found an island in the middle of nowhere in the shape of the two-pronged attack on his chair.

The notice for taking the vote of confidence struck simultaneously with the submission of the no-trust move has given a temporary breather to Ch Pervaiz Elahi from an untimely demise of his nascent second tenure.

Had the PMLN and its allies not employed these political tactics on Monday, Pervaiz Elahi’s government might not have seen the light of the day after December 23 if Imran Khan’s decision held water until then.

Now, Pervaiz Elahi has a legal cushion to sit on, at least, till the fate of the no-trust motion is decided.

The allied opposition in Punjab has moved the no-trust under Article 136 of the Constitution read with the Rule 23 of the Rules of Procedure of the Punjab Assembly 1997. The Article 136 (2) of the Constitution says, “The resolution referred to in Clause (1) shall not be voted upon before the expiration three days, or later than seven days, from the day on which such resolution is moved in the provincial assembly.’”

The Rule 23 (1) says, “A notice of a resolution under clause (1) of Article 136 shall be given in writing to the Secretary by not less than twenty percent of the total membership of the Assembly.”

Similarly, the Clause (2) says, “The Secretary shall, as soon as may be, circulate the notice to the members. The Clause 3 says, “A notice under sub-rule (1) shall be entered in the name of the members concerned in the List of Business for the first working day after the expiry of seven clear days of the receipt of the notice.” The Clause 4 says, “Leave to move the resolution shall be asked for after the commencement of the sitting in terms of sub-rule (3) of rule 24 and before any other business on the List of Business, is taken up.” The Clause 5 says “When the resolution is moved, the Speaker may, after considering the state of business, allot a day for the voting on the resolution:

Provided that the resolution shall not be voted upon before the expiry of three days, or later than seven days, from the day on which the resolution is moved in the Assembly.” While the Clause 6 says, “On the day appointed under sub-rule (5), the Speaker shall, without debate, put the/resolution to the vote of the Assembly in accordance with the provisions of the Second Schedule and the Assembly shall not be adjourned on that day until the resolution has been voted upon.” The Clause 7 says, “There shall be no other business on the day allotted by the Speaker for consideration of, and voting on, the resolution.”

The final part of the Rule 23, that is, Clause 8 says, “The Speaker shall, as soon as may be, inform the Governor of the decision made by the Assembly in respect of the resolution.”

In the light of the mentioned legal provisions for carrying out the whole no-trust motion, Ch Pervaiz Elahi has a minimum of 10 and a maximum of 14 days at his disposal. This could be said with certainty that if the Punjab Speaker, or someone in the chair, after a similar motion against him, decides not to play Asad Qaisar or Qasim Suri. The no-trust notice against Imran Khan was submitted on March 8, while it was taken up on April 3 before finally adopted on April 11. Consequently, the President dissolved the National Assembly on the advice of the PM. The Assembly couldn’t have been dissolved in any circumstances under Article 58 (1) of the Constitution when the no-trust move was on the floor. A similar situation will emerge in Punjab under Article 112 (1).

Now that Speaker Punjab Assembly Sibtain Khan said the Governor didn’t have any legal ground to call a fresh Session while the House is already in Session.

The matter is bound to reach the court. If the matter crawls out to the court, its end is just hard to guess. That is again a win-win situation for the incumbent CM. The delay in the process will be a daydream coming true for Mr Elahi. The Chief Minister will have a legal cover until the matter is resolved in both the Constitutional battles within or without the House.

It is learnt on authority the establishment, Ch Shujat Hussain, Nawaz Sharif and Asif Ali Zardari are babysitting the Punjab CM until the political situation crystallises. It is also learnt the CM camp is taking the undercurrents in its stride.

A source in the top PML-N ranks has said the Opposition in Punjab could not have managed all the legal exercise without Ch Pervaiz Elahi’s support as the Punjab Assembly is in his complete control.

After Imran Khan’s threat vis-a-vis the dissolution of two provincial assemblies, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi was trading the no man’s land. He wants to neither dissolve the assembly nor annoy Imran Khan. Sources said Pervaiz Elahi had met a high-ranking military officer in Islamabad. He has been conveyed the message ‘country doesn’t afford any Constitutional crisis at this juncture’ loud and clear.

A similar message has also been delivered to the PDM members for developing a consensus for overpowering the political brouhaha, if was learnt.