Punjab kerfuffle

For decades, Punjab had seen governments complete their tenures without many hitches but it seems the province is currently under a shadow – its governments coming and going through a political revolving door since April. From Usman Buzdar to Hamza Shehbaz to Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, the past few months have seen a game of roulette play out with the CM’s seat. We know that PTI Chairman Imran Khan wants to come back to power by any means and is now willing to give up two assemblies to force early elections. But we also know that the PDM government is in no mood to play ball. With Imran’s announcement that both the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assemblies will be dissolved on December 23, the PDM government has decided to opt for a no-confidence motion against Punjab Chief Minister Pervaiz Elahi as well as one each against the speaker and deputy speaker. Punjab Governor Balighur Rehman has also asked CM Elahi to obtain a vote of confidence from the Punjab Assembly today.

Per legal experts, CM Elahi will need to secure a vote of confidence before making any move on the dissolution of the assembly. Some constitutional experts say the chief minister may not be able to hold off the vote, citing Rule 22 of the Punjab Assembly Rules of Procedure which holds that if the chief minister refrains from the vote of confidence, “it shall be deemed that he does not command the confidence of the majority of the members” of the assembly. There is also a sense that the governor can even invoke this – thereby creating a void with no CM in the province, the issue eventually ending up in court. But, within all this, there is also the niggling feeling among political analysts that perhaps the PDM and the CM Punjab are not too far off on this issue – they may just be on the same page as far as the dissolution of the Punjab Assembly is concerned: both do not want it to be dissolved. We have seen enough proof of just how much Elahi has wanted the Punjab government. And, despite his claims to the contrary, giving it up will not be an easy task. While the PTI and PML-Q say that their alliance is solid, the no-holds-barred interview Elahi gave recently leads to a lot of questions. The site of the contest seems to be former COAS Gen Bajwa. Where Elahi would like him to be remembered in less unsavoury words, Imran has continued to ignore any such protestations and openly criticize the former chief. For now the fragile alliance stands but one wonders how long it can with such devastatingly differing approaches.

To remain CM, Elahi needs 186 votes. At the moment, the PTI government enjoys a razor-thin majority in the province, with the 10 votes of the PML-Q in its corner. The opposition in Punjab is just a few votes short of getting the magic number. The issue is with defecting members’ votes. Ever since the Supreme Court’s ruling in May on Article 63A pertaining to defecting lawmakers, there has been a lot of confusion on what it entails and how it applies. Legal experts say that in a vote of confidence, the SC verdict is silent on abstentions. On the vote of no-confidence, the majority of the parliamentary party can decide which way to go. Given these legal twists and turns, and the PDM along with the political maestro Zardari having no doubt made some overtures to the PML-Q, whether Punjab will still have a chief minister by the end of the day is a million dollar question. At a time when Pakistan faces a tragic return of terror in the form of the TTP, political parties would do well to remember that the people are watching – and they know very well just where they stand in the parties’ priorities.